In other words, if it fails it would be a real embarassment for Schwarzenegger and a major setback for his intention to pressure the legislature by constantly campaigning for initiatives to get his programs passed. But getting these two propositions passed aren't much of a test of his ability to repeat it in the future.
It's telling that Schwarzenegger did not support Prop 56, which the Times poll shows losing 46%-39%. It would reduce the current two-thirds vote requirement in the legislature that gives the Republican minority the ability to block passage of the budget. That would have been a meaningful reform to strat cleaning up California state government's disastrous structural problems. It would have also been a serious test of his leadership.
But Schwarzenegger is showing leadership in one area. Or at least setting a new record (my emphasis):
Schwarzenegger has taken fire for his budget cuts to health and human services programs and his handling of the state's prisons. Others are digging into Schwarzenegger for his fund raising. The governor has raised $10.9 million since taking office, a record amount.
"It certainly conflicts with the impression he gave the electorate as a candidate that he would end politics as usual," said Jim Knox, president of California Common Cause.
Schwarzenegger's idea of constantly campaigning for new initiatives means that his fund-raising needs will be unprecedented. This is one of the main ways in which California's nominally very democratic initiative system, a legacy of the Progressive Era of a century ago, can actually undermine democracy in important ways. Schwarzenegger's initiative strategy will make him more intensely dependent on special-interest money than Gray Davis ever was.
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