Friday, January 23, 2004

Iraq War: Regime Change in Britain?

"Oh! He's very important then if he's the prime minister. That's a real tough job, isn't it?" - Britney Spears in London, 03/27/02

Yes, it is a tough job. Rose Brady in Business Week 02/02/04 gives him a better chance than the oddsmakers of surviving possible major jolts next week: Will Tony Blair Dodge These Bullets? (Subscription required) She points out that Jan. 27 (Tuesday) is the date set for a controversial vote on a university fee ncrease which is seen as a key test of Blair's strength within his Labour Party. And on the following day:

... Brian Hutton, a respected senior judge, will release the report of his investigation into the death of weapons expert David Kelly. The government scientist killed himself last summer when he faced public scrutiny after being exposed as the source of a BBC story accusing 10 Downing St. of "sexing up" a British intelligence report on the dangers posed by Iraq.

The Hutton report could also prove embarassing for the Bush Administration, since it relates to the false prewar claims about Iraq's "weapons of mass destruction," including the uranium-from-Niger claim that wound up inspiring a couple of less-than-totally-patriotic souls among the Bush team to commit the crime of exposing Valerie Plame as an undercover CIA operative.

Brady's report doesn't make it clear how severely Blair's reckless support of the Bush Administration in the Iraq War has damaged him, not only within his party but with public opinion. But he does have the advantage of a poorly-led opposition in the Conservative Party at the moment. And opposition to the war, and therefore to Blair's role in it, has been far stronger among his own Labour Party than among the opposition Conservatives, who supported him on backing Bush's Iraq War.

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