California Politics: The Perils of Not Tooting Oneself

Political analyst Harold Meyerson had a good postmortem last October on the California recall: Gray Matter American Prospect 10/10/03. My favorite part of the piece is his use of one of my favorite quotations, from "the legendary labor leader" John L. Lewis, who was enthusiastic in promoting himself:

He who tooteth not his own horn, the same shall not be tooted.

Meyerson argues that Gray Davis' big problem was that he never had a strong constituency within the state Democratic Party himself. And he was not good at the vital skill of touting his own accomplishments (or "tooting" them either). In fact, he says, Davis "has long been just about the unhappiest warrior on the American political battlefield." Cruz Bustamonte also proved to be a poor alternative candidate for the Democrats. As a consequence, Meyerson observes:

... Republicans voted in the recall like there was no tomorrow and Democrats voted like there was no election. Just 39 percent of the voters on Tuesday were Democrats, while 38 percent were Republicans. Contrast that to the gubernatorial election of 1998, when Democrats constituted 42 percent of state voters and Republicans 37 percent, or the presidential contest of 2000, when Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 44 percent to 34 percent.

The attention now will all be on Arnold Schwarzenegger, but this election was all about Gray Davis. The new guy, after all, was not a wildly popular figure on Election Day: In the exit polling, 50 percent of voters volunteered a favorable opinion of Schwarzenegger, 45 percent an unfavorable one.

It was Davis, not Schwarzenegger, who brought Davis down. Shunning political positions, he came to stand for the entire political system. That was more baggage than any pol could bear.

This means that Schwarzenegger has a major challenge in building a strong base of support for himself, in which his March campaign for a $15 billion bond is a major event. So far, the measure is faring badly in the polls. But running a gloom-and-doom campaign to scare people about the alternatives of not passing it may not be the ideal vehicle to build positive impressions for himself.