Iraq War: This prediction was much better than the psychics

Economist James Galbraith has been following the Iraq War closely.  Nearly a year ago, he had the following observation:  Doubting Out Loud Texas Observer 10/24/03.

We should set some clear targets. By next summer [2004], either there will be security or there won’t be. The electricity and water will be fixed, or not. Oil will be flowing, or it won’t be. And Iraqis will be down the road toward their own government–or they won’t be. If there is sharp improvement in all of these areas, the soldiers will be on their way home, and Bush will win in 2004, like it or not. Otherwise, we should judge the crowd who got us into this at the polls. And then we should start to bring the troops home, as soon as we can.

Let's see, where do we stand.  Good security?  With more and more cities becoming "no go" zones for US troops, the "Green Zone" where the government and the American administrators reside is increasingly under fire and subject to attack, there's fighting in city after city, the Kurds are beginning with a little "ethnic cleansing" ... I'd say security is not very good, and getting worse rather than better.

Oil? It's flowing, but less and less.  It won't be paying for the costs of reconstruction any time soon.

Iraqis down the road to their own government?  Elections are scheduled in January.  But it's doubtful that any kind of meaningful elections will be held then.

Galbraith made his own prediction in those areas:

And for my actual predictions? On Iraq, I think we will find that by a year from now, not much has improved. But they will say we can’t leave because our prestige is committed, and what about all the boys who will, by then, have already died in the cause? There will, of course, be another huge bill to pay for the occupation next year.

That pretty much sums up the present situation, doesn't it?

In that same article, he expresses his skepticism about the health of the economy, largely based on the signs that consumers are in a relatively weak position to sustain the economy, especially without spectacularjob growth in 2004, which we have not seen.  I discussed Galbraith's view of the economic situation in a post of 10/24/04.