Thinking about the Spanish election

Given the way the discussion is going in the corners of the blogosphere that I've been able to check, some general points about the Spanish election are worth keeping in mind.

The Iraq War was extremely unpopular in Spain. Incoming President Zapatero in declaring he would withdraw Spanish troops from Iraq was doing what a huge majority of Spaniards wanted done before the "11-M" Madrid terrorist attack.

The main effect of the 11-M attack was to boost voter turnout. The attack and the impressive national demonstration in solidarity with the attack victims reminded voters in an emotional way about their role as citizens.

The conservatives were ahead in the polls by a few points prior to 11-M. But late-deciding voters went heavily for the social democrats, including some who were persuaded to vote by the attack and the national mood afterward.

Finally, there was real public outrage over what appeared to be an attempt by the government to deceive the public about the perpetrators in order to promote the electoral fortunes of the ruling conservative party. The conservative party's credibility had already been badly damaged by the Iraq War and the phony WMD claims. So some voters found it easy to believe that the ruling party would play dishonest games with the 11-M attacks.

There is no evidence that the vote represents any kind of surrender to terrorism. On the contrary, the pullout of Spanish forces from Bush and Blair's excellent adventure in Iraq will allow Spain to focus more on combatting terrorism within their borders, both al-Qaeda and ETA. Only those who drank the kool-aid that Bush and Blair were offering believed Saddam's regime had any connection with al-Qaeda. The outgoing government did. The vast majority of Spanish voters never did.