Madrid attack (2)

All those factors would be indications for ETA involvement: the recent arrests of ETA suspects planning an attack in Madrid; ETA suspects confessing that the had planned attacks on trains, including the discovery of a bomb on a train headed to Madrid; the major political defeat for the Basque separtists in the banning of the Batasuna party; elections to be held this coming weekend. And presumably the Spanish government had some kind of specific indications that ETA was involved in Thursday's attacks when the ask the Security Council to pass the resolution condemning ETA for it.

However, ETA typically has given advanced warning of their attacks. And coordinating bomb attacks has not been their style in the past.

Indications pointing toward al-Qaeda include a van found near where three of the attacked trains originated that contained detonators and a tape in Arabic of verses from the Qu'ran. (See the Washington Post article cited in the previous post.) The head of Batasuna also condemned the attack and said it was probably the work of an "Arab resistance" group. Obviously, ETA sympathizers might want to divert suspicion away from ETA, and the van could be a plant for the same purpose. So far as I'm aware, ETA does not include Islamic terrorists.

ETA stands for "Euskadi Ta Askatasuna," which means Euskadi [Basque country] and Liberty in euskera, the Basque language. ETA's background, as I understand it, is very much secular, although the Basque country tends to be conservative Catholic. Any religious ideology of ETA militants would likely be some kind of Catholic fundamentalism.

Simultaneous attacks are a characteristic of al-Qaeda attacks. And the London newspaper Al Quds Al Arabi has received a letter from an al-Qaeda affiliate claiming responsiblity for the Madrid attacks. A Spanish text of the letter from the Abu Hafs Al Masri Brigades is available here: Carta Supuestamente Enviada Por Al Qaeda El País 03/12/04.