I really hope these reports are wrong. Whatever justification there might be for it - and I'm not convinced at all on that point - the Bush administration is sure to screw this one up, too.
According to this UPI report (German media: U.S. prepares Iran strike by Martin Walker 12/30/05), the administration is asking Turkey to assist in the operation. It seems to be based in part on week-old German news reports.
The administration is reportedly offering Turkey a freer hand to act against Kurdish guerrillas from Turkey who are currently holing up in Iraqi Kurkistan, Walker writes:
[German news agency] DDP cited German security sources who added that the Turks had been assured of a warning in advance if and when the military strikes took place, and had also been given "a green light" to mount their own attacks on the bases in Iran of the PKK, (Kurdish Workers party), which Turkey sees as a separatist group responsible for terrorist attacks inside Turkey.
This report at the English-language site of Der Spiegel discusses the reports referred to in the UPI article: Is Washington Planning a Military Strike? Der Spiegel Online 12/30/05. The Spiegel article is notably more cautious about the sourcing than Walker's UPI piece:
The most talked about story [on the alleged attack plans] is a Dec. 23 piece by the German news agency DDP from journalist and intelligence expert Udo Ulfkotte. The story has generated controversy not only because of its material, but also because of the reporter's past. Critics allege that Ulfkotte in his previous reporting got too close to sources at Germany's foreign intelligence agency, the BND. But Ulfkotte has himself noted that he has been under investigation by the government in the past (indeed, his home and offices have been searched multiple times) for allegations that he published state secrets - a charge that he claims would underscore rather than undermine the veracity of his work.
According to Ulfkotte's report, "western security sources" claim that during CIA Director Porter Goss' Dec. 12 visit to Ankara, he asked Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to provide support for a possibile 2006 air strike against Iranian nuclear and military facilities. More specifically, Goss is said to have asked Turkey to provide unfettered exchange of intelligence that could help with a mission.
The Spiegel article looks more closely at other sources of such speculation, as well:
But the string of visits by high-profile US politicians to Turkey and surrounding reports are drawing new attention to the issue. In recent weeks, the number of American and NATO security officials heading to Ankara has increased dramatically. Within a matter of only days, the FBI chief, then the CIA chief and, most recently, NATO General Secretary Jaap De Hoop Scheffer visited the Turkish capital. During her visit to Europe earlier this month, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice also traveled to Turkey after a stopover in Berlin.
Leading the chorus of speculation are Turkish newspapers, which have also sought to connect these visits to plans for an attack on Iran. But so far none of the speculation has been based on hard facts. Writing about the meeting between Porter Goss and Tayyip Erdogan, the left-nationalist newspaper Cumhuriyet wrote: "Now It's Iran's Turn." But the paper didn't offer any evidence to corroborate the claims.
Instead, the paper noted that the meeting between the CIA chief and Erdogan lasted longer than an hour - an unusual amount of time, especially considering Goss had previously met with the head of Turkey's intelligence service, the MIT. The Turkish media concluded that the meetings must have dealt with a very serious matter - but they failed to uncover exactly what it was. Most media speculated that Erdogan and Goss might have discussed a common initiative against the PKK in northern Iraq. It's possible that Goss demanded secret Turkish intelligence on Iran in exchange. Regardless what the prospects are for a strike, there's little chance a US air strike against Iran would be launched from its military base in the Turkish city of Incirlik, but it is conceivable that the United States would inform Turkey prior to any strike.
Spiegel Online carried a German article on this on 12/23/05: Spekulationen über US-Schlag gegen Iran.
Other German articles carrying the story include:
USA erwägen Luftangriffe auf den Iran von Arian Faal Wiener Zeitung 27.12.05
USA werben um Unterstützung gegen Iran: CIA-Chef legt in Ankara angeblich Beweise für Zusammenarbeit Teherans mit El Kaida vor - Luftangriffe als Option von Udo Ulfkotte PNP.de 24.12.05. (This is a version of the Ulfkotte piece for DDP.)
Luftschläge gegen Atomzentren möglich Kölner Stadt-Anzeiger/DDP 23.12.05
Ulfkotte's piece talks about American accusations of Iranian collaboration with Al Qaeda. Of course. That's a Bush administration trademark. Maybe we can claim that Iran is hiding those missing Iraqi WMDs, too.
And if these attacks do take place, I'm sure it'll be a heckuva job.
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