John Dean is an expert on major federal government scandals in a way that few people alive are. That obviously doesn't mean he's always right. But he's definitely worth paying attention to: Waiting For The Valerie Plame Wilson Grand Jury: The Big Question Is Whether Dick Cheney Was a Target by John Dean, Findlaw.com 10/21/05.
Dean approves of Patrick Fitzgerald's professionalism so far:
Fitzgerald, and those who work for him, have acted throughout the investigation just as prosecutors should. Lips are zipped. Fitzgerald has held his information so close to his chest that, as one wag put it, he's got it in his underpants. Accordingly, Washington is filled with rumors.
Despite the fact that Republicans are the main suspects in this case, I am glad he conducted himself in this way, in dramatic contrast to that wretched fanatic Kenneth Starr.
Dean offers us some of that experienced perspective:
Something is going to happen, and, I think, fairly soon. It has been many years since my conversations with well placed friends in Washington have reflected the sort of inside-the-Beltway tension that is now mounting. This tension was not matched during the Whitewater/Lewinsky investigation, nor during Iran-Contra. But it is very reminiscent of the wait for the U.S. Supreme Court to rule in Nixon v. United States - the decision that famously forced Nixon to turn over his secretly recorded taped conversations - and ended his presidency.
The similarity is, of course, because there is the real potential that this investigation and prosecution could reach right into the top of the Bush White House. How high is the source in question? Could it be George Bush himself? Dick Cheney? Karl Rove? Scooter Libby? My guess is that, in different ways, all four likely were involved in the exposure of Plame's covert identity. (my emphasis)
Dean answers one question raised in the comments here recently about whether Fitzgerald is protected from Bush firing him. The answer is no: "a president can remove any federal prosecutor who might indict him, for they all serve at his pleasure."
He thinks that an indictment ofCheney is probably a long shot:
The really big fish in this case is the Vice President. And I have little doubt, based on my knowledge of the case, and of the way Cheney typically operates, that a case could be made against him.
But Fitzgerald is an experienced prosecutor, and that means only if he found himself confronted with an exceptionally egregious case (the equivalent of Spiro Agnew's taking payoffs from Maryland contractors in his Vice Presidential Office), would Fitzgerald consider indicting Vice President Dick Cheney.
Make no mistake, Fitzgerald has the power to indict anyone he finds to have violated federal law - and there are over 4,000 criminal laws today. And understand that prosecutors who truly want to nail someone (as Kenneth Starr did with President Bill Clinton) can do just that.
But Ken Starr was not a seasoned prosecutor. And it may make a difference that Fitzgerald was appointed by the Bush Administration, whereas, of course, Starr was not chosen by Clinton and they were politically opposed. As a rule, prosecutors do not bite the hand of the administration that feeds them.
In the end, Dean concludes that unless Fitzgerald can clearly establish that the leakers of Valerie Plame's identity as a undercover CIA operative acted for reasons they knew had nothing to do with national security, charges based on the outing itself or on the misuse of intelligence in the lead-up to the Iraq War, are unlikely. An anti-climactic outcome is still very possible. But he ends:
Unless, of course, these folks were foolish enough to give false statements, perjure themselves or suborn perjury, or commit obstruction of justice. If they were so stupid, Patrick Fitzgerald must stay and clean house.
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