Kerry/Bush 3rd debate

I didn't see this debate live, and I haven't yet watched the tape.  So I'm working from the transcript of the Washington Post. 

The first question let them both restate their positions on domestic anti-terrorist measures.  These comments of Bush caught my eye:

I have got a comprehensive strategy to not only chase down the Al Qaida, wherever it exists -- and we're making progress; three-quarters of Al Qaida leaders have been brought to justice -- but to make sure that countries that harbor terrorists are held to account.

Bush keeps repeating this, though its not entirely clear how he comes up with the count.  Even if its literally true, though, it's significance is limited.  Osama bin Laden kept membership in the core Al Qaeda organization very restricted.  There were always more qualified candidates than were admitted.  So a pool of new recruits was already in place, even before the Iraq War provided a recruiting bonanza for the jihadist groups.  For instance, see this article on Al Qaeda recruitment:  Next wave of Al Qaeda leaderhip by Owais Tohid Christian Science Monitor 10/05/04.  Tohid writes:

Atta-ur Rehman traded his jeans and T-shirts for a beard and cap, his civil-service aspirations for a martyr's spot in heaven. ...

Rehman doesn't fit the mold of the typical Al Qaeda leader. Traditionally, most were Arabs who gained status by resisting the Russians in Afghanistan in the 1980s. Younger, educated recruits tapped for suicide missions like 9/11 typically came from Middle Eastern countries with long histories of pan-Islamic resistance. What sets this new breed apart is that they are joining from places like Pakistan, where the focus has been on regional grievances, like independence for the disputed area of Kashmir. But as the Al Qaeda leadership ranks begin to thin, men like Rehman are starting to climb the ladder.

"It is a new generation of Al Qaeda," says Riffat Hussain, a leading defense and security analyst based in Islamabad, Pakistan. "These are new converts to Al Qaeda. They may have no links with Al Qaeda inthe past, but now they are willing to sacrifice their lives for the cause as they feel Al Qaeda is the name of defiance to the West. They are young and angry, and their number has swelled in the aftermath of the US invasion of Iraq."

No, we didn't hear Bush talking about that aspect of the anti-terrorism effort in any of the three debates.

Bush also bragged about women voting in Afghanistan:

As a result of securing ourselves and ridding the Taliban out of Afghanistan, the Afghan people had elections this weekend. And the first voter was a 19-year-old woman. Think about that. Freedom is on the march.

The presidential election in Afghanistan was a bad joke.  The NATO countries, who are committed to supporting the Karzai government at the moment, don't have any reason to make a stink about it, though, since there's not immediate prospect of a better partner.  And there's no hope of meaningful democratic elections as long as most of the country is controlled by warlords.

This article about German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder's brief post-election visit to Kabul illustrates vividly how pitiful the situation there is: Schröders Blitztour ins Land der Kompromisse von Matthias Gebauer Der Spiegel online 11.10.2004.

Schröder's visit at Karzai's palace lasted only about 10 minutes total. Gebauer gives some of the flavor of the palace atmosphere: 

Um sich einen Eindruck zu machen, welche nervöse Spannung in Karzais Umgebung üblicherweise herrscht, hätte der Kanzler vielleicht den normalen Eingang nehmen sollen. Dort wachen Dutzende grimmig dreinblickende US-Söldner der Firma Dyncorp mit ihrem M-16-Gewehren, die das Leben Karzais gegen jeden noch so brutalen Angreifer schützen sollen. Am Montag jedoch gingen sie erst mal auf einen ARD-Korrespondenten los. Wegen eines lapidaren Widerworts zu ihren Befehlen hetzten sie sofort Hunde auf ihn, nahmen den verdutzten Reporter sogar kurzzeitig fest.

[To get more of an impression for himself what kind of nervous tension normally reigns in Karzai's surroundings, perhaps the Chancellor should have taken the normal entrace.  There, dozens of grimly observant US mercenaries from the Dyncorp firm watch with their M-16 rifles, who must guard Karzai's life against every ever so brutal attacker.  On Monday, they went after an ARD [German TV network] correspondent for the first time.  Because he made a short retort to their orders, they immediately turned the dogs on him, and even briefly detained the friendly reporter.]

Gebauer notes that even in the most secure part of the palace, Schröder and Karzai had to be accompanied by about 20 bodyguards.   Schröder vaguely praised the desire of the Afghan people for democracy during his visit to Kabul, where he also visited German soldiers on duty there, but he also said it was a good thing that there would be an investigation of the irregularities in the election.

A few hours after Schröder's departure, writes Gebauer, five rockets were fired in Kabul, killing one 16-year-old.  A explosive device blew up on the road to the airport that Schröder had used shortly before.

"Die Wahl ist gelaufen - der Alltag hat Kabul wieder," writes Gebauer.  ("The election is done - everyday life has returned to Kabul.")  "Freedom is on the march," says President Bush.

Kerry got in a good point about Al Qaeda, reminding everyone of Cowboy Bush's git-'im-daid-or-alive comment:

When the president had an opportunity to capture or kill Osama bin Laden, he took his focus off of them, outsourced the job to Afghan warlords, and Osama bin Laden escaped.

Six months after he said Osama bin Laden must be caught dead or alive, this president was asked, "Where is Osama bin Laden?" He said, "I don't know. I don't really think about him very much. I'm not that concerned." 

We need a president who stays deadly focused on the real war on terror.

Kerry also got in a good lick on flu vaccine.  A solid public health system is critical as a defense against any large-scale biological weapons attack.  But so far, the Bush administration has shown enormously more concern for invading Iraq to get Saddam's non-existent "weapons of mass destruction" than he has about this basic element of real homeland defense for the United States.

Kerry didn't make that point explicitly.  But it's important.  As Laura Rozen recently pointed out on 10/12/04:

How did the Bush administration so mismanage getting the nation enough flu vaccine for this season? These are the guys who are supposed to protect us from terrorism? from bioterrorism? They can't even protect us from a totally predictable illness that kills 30,000 Americans every year. What a total fraud these guys are, incompetent, terror-hyping frauds. The war on terror exists for [Bush-Cheney] '04 only as so much advertising.

I have to admit I'm not excited about the deficit discussion.  Bush's fiscal management has been reckless and irresponsible, probably to a degree exceeding any other administration in American history, though some economists might want to quibble about whether Ronald Reagan deserves that honor.  I don't think Kerry will be able to recreate Bill's Clinton's deficit-reduction approach.

As president, he will need to make providing for the vital needs of ordinary working people more of a priority.  To spend eight years like Clinton did paying down the deficit, returning the country to a surplus and creating enormous opportunities in doing so, only to have the Bush dynasty come in and steal the presidential election and fritte it all away on tax cuts for the wealthiest and on no-bid contracts for Halliburton is just horrible.  A Kerry administration cannot risk a repitition of that tragedy.

Kerry did well on showing he was concerned about the outsourcing problem.  Bush's response was pretty weak.  But what could he say on that?  He's committed to giving tax subsidies for corporations who outsource American jobs to other countries.

On the "social issues" of abortion and gay marriage, Bush seemed to be trying to shore up his base, while Kerry was making a point of stating a position of tolerance. 

My wife, who is a native Austrian and works in an American hospital, saw part of the debate live and was particularly shaking her head over this comment of Bush's:

And just look at other countries that have tried to have federally controlled health care. They have poor-quality health care. 

Our health-care system is the envy of the world because we believe in making sure that the decisions are made by doctors and patients, not by officials in the nation's capital.

This reminds me of the time I asked a German friend who was well-informed about German politics if the Free Democrats (FDP), the German party that is the strongest advocate for "free market" deregulation-type policies, also advocated something like the American system of health-care financing through private insurance and payment by individuals.  She looked at me in surprise and asked, "What, do you think the FDP wants to lose all their voters?"

In general, I thought Kerry did well in reminding the viewers (and readers) of Bush's credibility problem.

Bob Schieffer's question on Social Security was a repetition of the Republicans' demagogic spin point:  "Mr. President, the next question is to you. We all know that Social Security is running out of money, and it has to be fixed."  And in talking about Social Security, it was sad to see Kerry genuflecting to Alan Greenspan instead of calling him for promoting the same demogoguery.  But he probably figured that he didn't want to have to spend the next three weeks answering fake Republican charges that he dissed the mystical Federal Reserve Bank and its reactionary, Ayn-Rand disciple of a chairman.

The exchange over immigration was a good example of how the Republicans like to hem and haw around this and often use it to scare white voters about all these dark-skinned illegals flooding in, when their real position normally is that they will go to the wall to protect the ability of big growers to smuggle illegal immigrant workers into the country and hire them illegally to do the jobs that Americans won't do.  Kerry's response addressed just that Republican hypocrisy on the issue:

Here's what I'll do: Number one, the borders are more leaking today than they were before 9/11. The fact is, we haven't done what we need to do to toughen up our borders, and I will. 

Secondly, we need a guest-worker program, but if it's all we have, it's not going to solve the problem.

The second thing we need is to crack down on illegal hiring. It's against the law in the United States to hire people illegally, and we ought to be enforcing that law properly.

And thirdly, we need an earned-legalization program for people who have been here for a long time, stayed out of trouble, got a job, paid their taxes, and their kids are American. We got to start moving them toward full citizenship, out of the shadows.

On his second point, watch that one if he gets elected.  The Republicans will fight tooth and nail against any effective sanctions on hiring illegal immigrants.

Near the end, Bush made another claim on Iraq that really caught my eye (my emphasis):

The best way to take the pressure off our troops is to succeed in Iraq, is to train Iraqis so they can do the hard work of democracy, is to give them a chance to defend their country, which is precisely what we're doing. We'll have 125,000 troops trained by the end of this year.

Say what?  The last I heard, the official plan was for an Iraqi army of no more than 40 thousand, compared to a prewar regular army of around 400 thousand.  Even if Bush loses, we'll be able to see if he fulfills that promise.  I wouldn't recommend betting large sums of money on his doing so.

A final point: This won't matter to those who enjoy the fairy tale of the Liberal Press.  But check out Bob Somerby's sketches of Bob Schieffer, the host for the third debate, on 10/12/04 and 10/13/04.  Short version: Schieffer is a personal friend of Bush's, and his brother Tom was one of Bush's business partners.