Monday, November 10, 2003

Iraq War: One to Watch For

As the situation in Iraq becomes more perilous militarily and/or politically, watch for some variation on this theme (from a 09/07/03 article by Ray Takeyh of National Defense University and Nikolas Gvosdev of the Nixon Center) to start bouncing around the Republican echo chamber (my emphasis):

<< ... American policy objectives are unlikely to fare well in a pluralistic Middle East. ... The best that the United States can hope for is to encourage the rise of liberal autocracies that will accommodate popular demands for accountability and participation while still maintaining close ties with the United States.

<< The model of liberal autocracy is not without precedent in the Arab-Muslim world. Several of the region's most stable and pro-American regimes are already moving toward this type of governance. The modernizing monarchies of Morocco, Jordan, Qatar and Kuwait and the liberalizing one-party state of Tunisia all serve to illustrate this indigenous trend. This sort of liberal autocracy should be America's model for political reconstruction in Iraq. Instead of quixotic democratic schemes, Washington should create a strong central government in Baghdad, one that is responsive to its citizens but also capable of regulating local rivalries and is insulated from popular pressure. >>

That's not to say it's a good idea. As Juan Cole has said, "The 'benign autocracies' of the Middle East have been the main producers of terrorism."

But actually installing a fully functioning democracy requires a level of military commitment - and a restoration of the draft - that a Republican Administration is unlikely to be able to bear. But, given the level of this Administration's commitment to its partners in crony capitalism like Halliburton and Bechtel, a straightforward pull-out is also unlikey to seem to them an unattractive option.

Expect to hear more about the alleged virtues of "benign autocracy."


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