Gov.-elect Schwarzenegger is enjoying a pre-inauguration honeymoon in the press and with other political leaders. But it's unlikely to last long. He's coming to power as an insurgent, and the real problems he faces will be hard to avoid.
He's taking a trip to Washington this week, where his celebrity status will likely give him good press coverage. But he has an $8 billion budget deficit to close. And one of his key campaign promises was to roll back a car license fee increase that could add another $4 billion to the deficit if he succeeds. Somebody's ox is going to get gored in the process.
California's Congressional delegation is already pressing him on issues like financial privacy laws, forest protection, federal funding formulas, water projects, auto emissions and energy issues - including renegotiation of the long-term contracts Davis used to stabilize the energy crisis.
Schwarzenegger also faces a real political dilemma over his promise to rescind the undocumented workers drivers license law Davis recently signed. Latino activist groups and Democratic legislators are expressing a willingness to amend it to add features like mandatory criminal record checks. But if Schwarzenegger winds up carrying out his threat to back an initiative to accomplish the repeal, he could be in a political bind.
California voters may be in another anti-immigrant mood right now. So an immigrant-bashing initiative might win. But it will remind both Latino voters and non-Latino moderates of the reasons they've been leaning Democractic in recent elections. Columnist Carlos Ramos notes:
Those who stand to be the beneficiaries of these licenses are the same undocumented workers who provide maintenance for the gardens, who cook or clean tables in restaurants, who polish the floors of the great office buildings at night, or those who clean the houses and take care of the children of much of the middle class that Schwarzenegger intends to please when he says he is opposed to [this] law.
Win or lose on the initiative, the results are not likely to be pretty for Schwarzenegger.
1 comment:
As I understand it, the immediate $4.0 billion impact of the license fee reduction would be on local governments, although if the state replaced the funds, the shortfall would be sifted to the state. - Bruce
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