Blowback, Iran edition

From A Selective Partnership: Getting U.S.-Iranian Relations Right by Gary Sick Foreign Affairs Nov/Dec 2006:

The 14-month period between President Bush's "axis of evil" speech and his triumphal appearance on the deck of the U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln, in May 2003, was a time of unparalleled hubris in U.S. foreign policy.  Washington had eliminated tyrannical regimes in Afghanistan and Iraq, briskly and with remarkably little loss of life.  Proponents of the audacious use of U.S. power to reshape the Middle East were openly debating whether the next target should be Iran or Syria.  In the midst of all the self-congratulation, few U.S. officials were interested in Tehran's offer to hold direct talks on all outstanding issues between Iran and the United States.  According to former officials and even Secretary of State Rice, not only was the message studiously ignored, but the Swiss ambassador in Tehran, who represented U.S. diplomatic interests in Iran, was chastised for exceeding his authority simply by having delivered it.

Wherever one looks in the Middle East today, the specter of Iran hovers like Banquo's ghost at Macbeth's table.  Quite inadvertently, the U.S.-led invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq empowered Iran by eradicating its two most potent enemies, the Taliban and Saddam.  And for the first time in history, Iraq's majority Shiite population, which is far more sympathetic to Iran than were the formerly dominant Sunnis, has taken the reins of power.  At least partly as a consequence, Iran has become much bolder in challenging the West over its nuclear-enrichment program and in offering gratuitous advice on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.  (my emphasis)