Austrian parliamentary election of October 1

Austria held national election on Sunday, Oct. 1.  Here's how the outcome looked as of Monday morning US Pacific time:

SPÖ (Social Democrats): 35.7%
ÖVP (Christian Democrats): 34.2%
FPÖ: 11.2%
Greens: 10.4%
BZÖ: 4.2%

The current government is a coalition of the Christian Democrats (ÖVP; Österreichische Volkspartei, or People Party) and the BZÖ (Bündnis Zukunft Österreich, or Alliance for the Future of Austria), with the ÖVP holding the Chancellorship under Wolfgang Schüssel and most of the ministries.  Translating the Austrian parties' ideology into American terms adequately would require several paragraphs.  So I'll rely on oversimplistic descriptions here.

The ÖVP is the main conservative party.  It is considered the party of big business.  The BZÖ is (in American terms) more conservative but more folksy in its appeal.

The BZÖ is a split-off party from the larger FPÖ.  Their ideologies are similar, though the FPÖ was stressing their anti-immigrant fervor more during the current election.

The SPÖ (Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichischs) under Alred Gusenbauer won the largest plurality, so in the Austria parliamentary system, the President would be expected to invite the SPÖ to form a government.  If the SPÖ can't put together a majority coalition, then the President would ask the ÖVP to do so.

The most likely combination will be what in Austria and Germany is called a Grand Coalition, a government of the Social Democrats and the Christian Democrats: Große Koalition hätte Zwei-Drittel-Mehrheit Der Standard 02.10.06.

Austria has had a Grand Coalition national government for most of the history of the Second Republic, which was founded after the Second World War.  Germany, by contrast, has had only two: one in the mid-1960s, and one now.

There are some interesting political-sciency things to say about why Austria has tended to have a Grand Coalition government more often than not.  I won't go into detail here.  But part of it has to do with an elaborate system of power-sharing called "Proporz", which made a lot of sense in the postwar context but seems less and less sensible as time goes on.  Another is the demographic breakdown of the vote.  Vienna has the nickname "Red Vienna" because it tends to vote heavily for the Social Democrats, and it is by far the most populous state (province) in the country.  But the other states have tended to vote more for the ÖVP.  So it's often been the case that the ÖVP controlled most of the state governments and the SPÖ the Vienna government, but neither could build a majority on their own nationwide.

The available coalition parties have also been an issue.  The FPÖ has traditionally been split between a professional/small-business wing and a conservative-to-reactionary right wing, and they've tended to be a difficult potential coalition partner.  The infamous Jörg Haider, a pretty-boy who got international attention for his fond thoughts about the Third Reich, was the leader of the FPÖ for years.  Haider went with the BZÖ when they split from the FPÖ.  But Haider now seems to be mostly a media clown who's less a potential Mussolini than a prima donna who loves to see himself on TV.

The Austrian Greens are similar to the German Greens, with a strong emphasis on environmental issues, women's rights, civil liberties and international neutrality, the latter having a particular historical role in Austria.

The ÖVP, the SPÖ and the Greens are all strongly pro-Europe, i.e., friendly to the European Union of which Austria is a member.  The  FPÖ and BZÖ are less enthusiastic for the EU, which is also a big issue for them to become coalition partners.

Having said all of that, the article from Der Standard linked above gives a breakdown ofpossible coalition combinations.  To get a majority, a coalition requires 92 seats in Parliament.  The votes haven't been completely counted, so the number of seats may vary.  It's possible, according to the Standard article, that the Greens could wind up in third place in the vote instead of the FPÖ.

These are the possible combinations, with the number of seats they would likely have combined:

SPÖ + ÖVP          134
ÖVP + FPÖ + BZÖ     95
SPÖ + FPÖ + BZÖ     97
SPÖ + Grüne         88
ÖVP + Grüne         86

Of the three combinations that produce a majority, only the first, SPÖ + ÖVP (the Grand Coalition combination) seems likely at this stage.  The SPÖ has ruled out a coalition with the BZÖ, and the ÖVP rejects a coalition with the FPÖ.

The other advantage of a Grand Coalition is that their majority would give them the two-thirds vote they would need to make changes in the national constitution.

A Grand Coalition can be useful in developing consensus solutions to problems that another coalition combination or even a single-party majority might find difficult to put through for fear that the major opposition party would take a contrary position to capitalize on political discontent arising from the action.

The drawback, as Austria's more recent experience has shown, is that having both major parties in the same government means that neither major party is acting as a loyal opposition.  This creates an opportunity for demagoguery from the smaller parties, because they're likely to pick up some votes from a "throw the bums out" sentiment without actually having to take responsibility for delivering on their promises as part of a government.

Another interesting piece of news from Sunday's vote is that the SPÖ remains the largest vote-getter in the state of Styria (Steiermark).  Their percentage went down slightly, but the ÖVP's percentage went down even more.  Styria had until recently been safe ÖVP territory.