Iraq War: Reality intrudes

Fantasy time for the Americans in Iraq is ending. The killings in Fallujah last week with the sadistic mutilations of corpses was a horror.  Now there is a new, bloody escalation in Baghdad itself, involving Shiite militias that had played only a marginal role in the violence up to now. The three major ethnic/regional groups in Iraq - Shia, Sunnis, Kurds, all heavily armed - have been jockeying for the post-June showdown.

The deadline for the turnover of sovereignty to an interim Iraqi government is June 30. Look at the calendar. That's less than three months away. If we knew how the new government would be constituted, it might be easier to make predictions about it. But it's going to be a thinly-disguised puppet government with virtually no legitimacy in Iraq.

The Bush Administration is preparing for the current levels of US troops to remain in Iraq for the next two years. But given plans for a tiny Iraqi army (40,000 the last I heard), the US troops aren't leaving even in two years under the current approach. How much responsibility will the US have in the new "sovereign" Iraq after June 30? Naomi Klein in the Guardian (04/03/04) reports that the US-imposed law on foreign ownership (itself probably a violation of the Geneva Convention) cannot be amended by the "sovereign" government. The US Embassy will still directly administer reconstruction aid. And:

Bremer has issued an executive order stating that even after the interim Iraqi government has been established, the Iraqi army will answer to US commander Lt General Ricardo Sanchez. In order to pull this off, Washington is relying on a legalistic reading of a clause in UN security council resolution 1511, which puts US forces in charge of Iraq's security until "the completion of the political process" in Iraq. Since the "political process" in Iraq is never-ending, so it seems is US military control.

Fox News will no doubt continue to spin pretty tales about liberation and flourishing democracy at the end of the tunnel. The reality is ugly, brutal guerrilla war. With no end in sight.