Thursday, April 1, 2004

Iraq War: The question of "will"

The Christian Science Monitor published an intriguing piece Thursday on possible effects of the Fallujah killings: Killings in Iraq challenge US will 04/02/04.

But the events in Fallujah are part of a widespread uptick in violence against occupation forces and groups working with them, suggesting deteriorating rather than stabilizing conditions as the power transfer approaches. And while no one expects the upsurge to prompt a disengagement from a project that will define the Bush presidency in its reelection campaign, ongoing efforts to spread responsibility and reduce US exposure are expected to intensify.

The anti-American violence in Fallujah "won't have any large impact on the determination to stay the course in Iraq, there's no sudden groundswell of support for getting out," says Michael O'Hanlon, a military analyst at the Brookings Institution in Washington. "But it is one more data point as Americans assess how much they want to stick to this thing."

A building sense of chaos, fed by the anti-American violence, is the larger worry behind the initial horror of Wednesday's scenes, other observers say.

"The bigger issue here is the cumulative impact of the failure to stabilize the country and the continuing difficulty in arriving at an acceptable political transition," says Mac Destler, director of the program in international security and economic policy at the University of Maryland. "As you approach [the power transfer] you have a scenario of increasing attacks and political uncertainty that raises all the doubts and worries people had about this war. I'm sure they [in the White House] are scared to death of it."

Now I certainly don't question the importance of a country showing it is reliable in its commitments. But I also think the issue of "will" as often as not serves as a substitute when more specific and substantial reasons for a war or military intervention don't serve. If the original premise of the war (WMDs) was wrong, and if there is no clear benefit from continuing an inconclusive war compared to pulling out, what's the point in showing "will" by staying in a bad situation?

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