Saturday, February 7, 2004

Michigan and Washington Caucuses

The results of Saturday's Michigan and Washington caucuses are a further boost to John Kerry. It wasn't any kind of knockout for John Edwards, Howard Dean or General Clark. But the publicity is another boost for Kerry.

The nomination race isn't over yet. But at this point the race is becoming more and more a personality contest. Because of the four real contenders, there just aren't strong differences on either foreign or domestic policies. At least none that are likely to mean a lot to Democratic primary voters at this point.

Had Dick Gephardt or Joe Lieberman still been a strong contender, they would have stuck out as defenders of Bush's foreign policy. But they're gone. And a big part of the reason - the main reason, I think, despite the lack of specific polling data to back it up - was their outspoken support of the Iraq War and of Bush's foreign policy in general.

And Kerry doesn't have any strong negatives among any strong faction in the Democratic Party. Despite his lapse of judgment in supporting Bush's Iraq War resolution in 2002, his credentials to criticize the war and Bush's and Rummy's conduct of it are strong. At this point, his general credibility on Iraq looks to be much better than Bush's.

It's no surprise that the Republicans are turning their propaganda barrage onto him, now.

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