I agree with Kevin Drum's observation from southern California that the statewide election next week has been a remarkably low-key event. I've experienced the same thing in northern California. Although the level of political commercials seem to have picked up considerably this past weekend.
Tuesday's Los Angeles Times has the results of a poll sponsored by the paper. John Kerry is leading John Edwards in the Democratic primary 56% to 28%.
In a good sign for Gov. Schwarzenegger, the two main initiatives he's sponsoring are showing strong support. The most critical one for him is Proposition 57, his $15 billion bond issue. It refinances some current debt, but it also helps cover operating deficits for the 2003-4 fiscal year and for 2004-5, as well. It's leading 51% to 34%, with a hefty 15% still undecided.
I'm a little puzzled by that, though. Kevin Drum's post linked above cites two polls from a few days ago showing it with less than 40% support.
Schwarzenegger's other initiative is Prop 58, which requires the legislature to balance the annual operating budget without the kind of borrowing Schwarzenegger's own budget proposals use, in effect eliminating the need for future Prop 57's. It also puts requirements in place for a "rainy day reserve" during good years.
It's no great sign of Schwarzenegger's leadership if these two pass. Most leading Democrats rather timidly endorsed Prop 57. The LA Times poll does indicate that Schwarzenegger's commercial the last few days were influential, especially with Republicans. But the practical alternative if Prop 57 fails would be even sharper immediate cuts in services and some kind of tax/fee increases. Schwarzenegger the great budget savior couldn't even propose a balanced budget for 2004-5 that didn't rely on billions of borrowed money in Prop 57.
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