We're hearing about a new push in the spring to find Osama bin Laden, presumably hiding somewhere in Afghanistan or Pakistan. Meanwhile, in Afghanistan, the "national" government barely controls the capital city of Kabul, and that''s only with the muscle of a NATO force to help them. Now, the pretence that they can have meaningful national elections this year is falling apart. Insecurity threatens Afghan vote Christian Science Monitor 12/31/03:
Mandated by the UN-sponsored peace talks in Bonn to take place by June 2004, Afghan national elections now may be postponed until September at the earliest. And a growing number of diplomats, academics, and aid groups say that democracy may be coming too fast.
The problem, these critics say, is that two years after the fall of the Taliban, Afghanistan remains volatile. Across the country, progovernment militia commanders retain the ability to intimidate or influence voters in their regions. In the south, Taliban remnants make it unsafe to send registrars into a vast area dominated by the nation's largest ethnic group, the Pashtuns. No election is perfect, these critics say, but if a large number of Afghans see the upcoming vote as illegitimate, the country could fall back into violent instability, even civil war.
And prospects haven't improved in the two months since that article: Democratic Deficit Guardian (UK) 02/24/04.
As in Iraq, hopes of timely democratic elections are fading in Afghanistan. ...
Afghanistan has been experiencing the worst upsurge in violence since the Taliban were overthrown in 2001; over 550 people have died since August. Recent suicide bombings, a phenomenon previously unknown in Afghanistan, have underscored the threat. British and Canadian peacekeepers were among the victims last month.
The problems in "nation-building" in Afghanistan have unfortunately been a foreshadowing of the problems of the US occupation in Iraq.
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