Despite the official happy talk from the Bush Administration, the independent press reports out of Iraq are not encouraging. Suzanne Goldenberg reports on a visit to Iraq in the London Guardian, a report notable because much of it focuses on southern Iraq, which has not had the level of guerrilla fighting experienced in central Iraq. Several things stand out in her article to me.
Crime and non-state armed groups are critical problems. "The knock at the door at night is no longer a member of Saddam's secret police, but it could very well be an armed robber, an enforcer from a political faction, or an enemy intent on revenge."
Unemployment is severe. This has the doubly dangerous effect of leaving people without legitimate incomes and encouraging black-market activities like smuggling.
Clashes between religious factions could become a major problem. Some violent Sunni-Shia conflict has already begun in the south.
Tribal authorities are being reinforced. The Western reporting on tribal systems in Iraq may suffer from a certain colonialist perspective. But for an Iraqi national state oriented toward becoming a free and democratic Muslim society along the model of Turkey, allowing the tribal systems to move into a void left by the lack of government authority is very dangerous.
There does not seem to be any substantial popular base of support for the American occupation. "At no point in my journey did Iraqis mention the US-appointed governing council as a potential force for good. Although southern Iraq is relatively quiet in the absence of any real authority, it is hard even here to sustain hopes for a stable future."
I don't mean to suggest this article is definitive. But Americans need to be paying attention to this.
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