Thursday, April 6, 2006

Iraq War: "Time is up"

"I think we are winning.  Okay?  I think we're definitely winning.  I think we've been winning for some time." - Gen. Richard Myers, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, on the Iraq War 04/26/05

"I just wonder if they will ever tell us the truth." - Harold Casey, Louisville, KY, October 2004.

Spain's El País says that in the Iraq War, El tiempo se acaba (time is up) 04.04.06:

Condoleezza Rice ha viajado inesperadamente a Bagdad para advertir a sus políticos de que el tiempo se acaba. En medio de una violencia incontenible y casi cuatro meses después de las elecciones legislativas, el nuevo Parlamento no ha sido capaz de nombrar un primer ministro y un Gobierno representativos. Las consecuencias de este progresivo descenso al abismo son perceptibles a diario en el país árabe. Los ajustes de cuentas se han disparado, especialmente tras la destrucción en febrero de un venerado santuario chií en Samarra; las milicias de secuaces obedientes a jefes políticos actúan con impunidad; Bagdad es un matadero cotidiano; más de 30.000 personas han sido expulsadas de sus hogares en poco más de un mes, incipiente versión iraquí de limpieza étnica o religiosa. ...

La evolución de Irak supera el escenario más pesimista que Bush pudiera haber avizorado, aunque nunca lo reconocerá. Allí han muerto 2.300 soldados de EE UU y permanecen otros 140.000 encenagados en una estrategia sin salida militar ni política, y económicamente ruinosa. Washington no tiene en este momento un socio claro entre los chiíes que dominan políticamente el país. Incluso si Yafari se ve obligado a tirar la toalla, su sustitución al frente del Gobierno no es fácil en un Irak sin aspirantes claros y progresivamente centrífugo y agarrotado. Llegado el caso, todo sugiere que la alianza chií tendrá que pactar con otros grupos de su mismo credo y con los partidos suníes y kurdos un candidato de aceptación mínima. Nada sería más grave en este incierto proceso que el colapso del centro chií en favor de los radicales.

[Condoleeza Rice traveled unexpectedly to Baghdad to warn their politicians that time is up.  In the midst of uncontainable violence and nearly four months after the legislative elections, the new Parliament has not had the capacity to name a prime minister and a representative government.  The consequences of this progressive descent into the abyss are perceptableevery day in the Arab country.  The adjustments of the numbers that have disappeared, especially after the destruction in Febrary of a venerated Shi'a sanctuary in Samarra; the partisan militias obedient to political chiefs act with impunity; Baghdad is a daily slaughterhouse; over 30,000 people have been expelled from their homes in a little more than a month, [in] an incipient Iraqi version of ethnic or religious cleansing. ...

The evolution of Iraq is exceeding the most pessimistic scenario that Bush could have envisioned, though he would never admit it.  There have been 2,300 US soldiers who have died there and another 140,000 remain, wallowing in a strategy without neither a military nor a political exit, and which is economically ruinous.   At this moment, Washington does not have a clear policy toward the Shi'a who politically dominate the country.  Even if Jaafari sees himself obliged to throw in the towel [on his candidacy for prime minister, which the US opposes], his replacement at the head of the govenerment is not easy in an Iraq without clear aspirants and which is more and more centrifugal and tense.   in regard to the situation, everyone suggests that the Shi'a alliance will have to come to an agreement with other groups of their own creed and with the Sunni and Kurdish parties on a minimally acceptable candidate.  Nothing would be more serious in this uncertain situation than the collapse of the Shi'a center in favor of the radicals.]

I'm not exactly sure who the editorialists of El País are counting as Shi'a centrists.  Do any of the significant Shi'a groups qualify as centrist?

But their statement of the precarious state of the situation in Iraq meshes with many other reports we're getting now.

"Wars are easy to get into, but hard as hell to get out of." - George McGovern and Jim McGovern 06/06/05

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