Monday, July 12, 2004

It can't happen here (as they used to say)

Another chapter in the continuing story of the Bush Dynasty:

Officials discuss how to delay Election Day CNN.com 07/12/04

U.S. officials have discussed the idea of postponing Election Day in the event of a terrorist attack on or about that day, a Homeland Security Department spokesman said Sunday.

"Homeland Security," they call it.

According to the CNN report, it was Newsweek that broke this story.

Election Day Worries Newsweek 07/19/04 issue (accessed 07/12/04)

American counterterrorism officials, citing what they call "alarming" intelligence about a possible Qaeda strike inside the United States this fall, are reviewing a proposal that could allow for the postponement of the November presidential election in the event of such an attack, NEWSWEEK has learned. ...

Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge. Ridge and other counterterrorism officials concede they have no intel about any specific plots. But the success of March's Madrid railway bombings in influencing the Spanish elections—as well as intercepted "chatter" among Qaeda operatives—has led analysts to conclude "they want to interfere with the elections," says one official. (my emphasis)

Notice that the Spanish elections in March are used here as a justification for the planning for the postponement of elections.  (Didn't we used to call that a "coup"?)  The idea that the Madrid bombings influenced the outcome of the elections is, at best, only partially supported by the available polling data and the subsequent investigations.  Hey, imagine that!  There are already thorough official investigations under way about all aspects of the "11-M" (March 11) attacks in Spain.  While our 9/11 Commission is just getting ready to issue its special report, after the administration lost it's long fight to prevent any kind of meaningful independent investigation.

If anything, it was the Spanish ruling party's dishonest and cynically political handing of the 11-M attacks that may have affected the election outcome.  But that idea is also only partially supported by the available data. 

One bright side is that, in making the most cynical election calculations, Bush has gotten only three large boosts in the polls - after 9/11, after the Iraq invasion, and after Saddam's capture.  If a major terrorist strike occures within six weeks or so of the November election, that previous experience suggests that it would help Bush's chances to get elected.  So what would Karl Rove want to postpone elections if that occurs?

Of course, Bush didn't exactly get into office by being elected, did he?

Yeah, it sounds like we need to worry.  And not just about The Terrorists.

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