American public opinion and the Israel-Lebanon War

I checked PollingReport.com today to see what various polls are saying about the Israel-Lebanon War.  I haven't seen any polling result on  it before.  But as PollingReport's Israel, the Palestinians . . .   page shows, several have been done.

I'll just talk about one of them here, the ABC News/Washington Post poll of 08/03-06/06.  It was based on adults nationwide, and no breakdowns by party or other factors are provided there.

Here's how Nedra Pickler (groan!) summarized the polling results in Bush Cautions on Lebanon Cease-Fire AP/Washington Post 08/08/06

While Americans tend to sympathize with Israel, they are evenly split on whether Israel is justified in bombing Hezbollah targets where civilians may be killed or wounded.  More than half, 54 percent, say Israel could do more to avoid civilian casualties in Lebanon, an ABC News-Washington Post poll found.

This is presumably the Aug. 3-8 poll she's talking about.

The detailed results provided at PollingReport.com indicate the following.  On the questions relating to Israeli bombing of civilians, Pickler is right about the results be evenly split, with 47% saying they are justified and 48% saying they are not.  The poll found that 58% buys Israel's justification for attacking civilian areas as being because Hizbullah is positioning its fighters and rocket launchers there.  And, as Pickler mentioned, 54% think that Israel should be doing more to avoid civilian casualties.

The latter question is actually worded, "Do you think Israel is doing all it reasonably can do to try to avoid civilian casualties in Lebanon, or do you think it should do more?" Only 38% said Israel was doing all it can on that score.  I would say the wording of the question sets the judgment standard as "reasonableness", which makes the 54% a bit stronger than if the question has been, "Do you think Israel is trying to avoid civilian casualties, or would you like to see more done?"  Given the overwhelming backing of Israel by the President and the Congress, the public's general sympathy for Israel and the fact that there opponents are "Muslim terrorists", I find it surprising that so largea percentage as 54% would say that.

It also puts the "even split" on bombing in a somewhat different light.  It's an even split on the question of "bombing Hezbollah targets located in areas where civilians may be killed or wounded".  With all the wars we've had with bombing striking civilian areas, with all the golly-gee-wow attitude toward high-tech firepower that's out there and the fact that bombing military targets in civilians areas is considered legitimate (in general) in international law, the fact that 48% said it's "not justified" is actually a more surprising result than the 54% on avoiding civilian casualties.  I've been very critical of the targeting of civilian areas by both Israel and Hizbullah.  But given the way that question is worded, I would have responded "justified", even though I think Israel's overall response has been way over the top.

I was also surprised to see the 50% disapprove of how Bush is handling the current conflict between Israel and Hizbullah, versus 43% how approve.  I wonder if the question had specified Lebanon instead of Israel if the "disapproves" wouldn't have been higher, since most Americans would process Hizbullah as a "Muslim terrorist" organization, which is certainly true in part, though the label doesn't entirely fit a complex operation like Hizbullah.

Maybe the most suprising of all the results were the responses to, "Who do you think is more to blame for the current conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon: Israel, Hezbollah, or both equally?"  Thirty-nine percent picked Hizbullah, 7% picked Israel and 46% picked both.  In other words, 53% believed that Israel was mainly or equally to blame for the war as Hizbullah. Here also, even though I think Israel's response was disproportional to the actual threat and provocation, I would have been tempted to pick Hizbullah, since it was a Hizbullah raid on an Israeli military unit across an international border on July 12 that was the proximate cause of this war.  So I'm surprised at the lack of enthusiasm for Israel's actions shown in this poll.

And, on the issue that is my main policy concern over the Israel-Lebanon War, they asked, "Do you think the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah will help or hurt the situation for the United States in Iraq, or won't it make much difference there?"  Fifty-four percent said not much difference, 35% said it would hurt it.  Only 7% said it would help the US position in Iraq.  If there's anything surprising in that, it's that only 7% said the Israel-Lebanon War would help the US situation in Iraq.  According to the posturing of the hawks, "those people" (Arabs, and Persians, too, for those who realize that Iran is mostly Persian) only understand force; and the more we kick The Terrorists get their butts kicked, the better it is. 

Caution is always in order in reading poll results, especially on foreign-policy issues.  Polls are more of a blunt instrument on foreign policy than on domestic issues, because foreign-policy issues tend to be more episodic.  Abortion and unemployment are issues of long standing that people have had years, decades, to think about.  The Israel-Lebanon War only started on July 12.  It's very helpful in polls on foreign-policy issues especially to see separate breakdowns for those who are well-informed about the particular issue versus those who are not.

These results are an indication to me that Steve Gilliard has been right in thinking that Israel's bombing of so many civilian areas was going to be a real damper on the American public's enthusiasm for Israel's military adventures.

What prompted me to look up some polling data was this article: Lebanon violence stifles dialogue between Jews and Muslims in U.S. by Matthai Chakko Kuruvila San Francisco Chronicle 08/08/06.

This article leaves the impression (without saying so explicitly) that it's generally accepted that American Jews support Israel and the  Olmert government in the Israel-Lebanon War, and that American Muslims support Lebanon and/or Hizbullah.  It got me to wondering whether there was any polling data that broke down responses by religious affiliation.  But I haven't found any yet.