Iraq War: Wheels within wheels

"I think we are winning.  Okay?  I think we're definitely winning.  I think we've been winning for some time." - Gen. Richard Myers, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, on the Iraq War 04/26/05

"I just wonder if they will ever tell us the truth." - Harold Casey, Louisville, KY, October 2004.

Phil Carter has been keeping a close eye on Army force levels. He believes that the uniformed services (presumably the Army in particular) will press hard the next two years to get an Iraqi government army trained and ready, driven in large part by the fear that having the current level of US troops in Iraq past 2006: Will the Tail Wag the Dog? Intel Dump blog 06/19/05

Further, I think the U.S. government may subtly and secretly push the Iraqi government to "request" the U.S. draw down its force presence. This will, of course, help the Iraqis establish their sovereignty by letting them flex their muscles a bit; it will also help them appease the Iraqi population would like to see us go soon too. And, of course, it will work to our benefit as well, since our force does not have much the capacity to remain in Iraq beyond 2006. At the extreme end of the spectrum, it's possible to imagine the Iraqis booting us out of the country in a fit of sovereignty, perhaps just after the new Constitution is adopted. I wouldn't be surprised if this ejection was engineered by the U.S. behind closed doors. Assuming the Iraqis are ready to their own security when the U.S. leaves, such a move would be win-win for everyone. The Iraqis would get their country back; the U.S. would get "mission accomplishment" — and a way out of Iraq.

I still remain quite concerned about the military manpower and force structure issues in Iraq. Assuming we remain on course, we will see a military manpower meltdown in 2006, starting in the reserve components, and eventually affecting the active components. However, I think the U.S. will shape the situation in some way so as tonot kill the all-volunteer force. This, I think, can best be descriped as the tail wagging the dog. In theory, mission requirements should dictate force structure. But in today's world, our force structure constraints have begun to dictate our strategy and operations.  (my emphasis)

His optimism may not be entirely compatable with his diagnosis of the problem. He's predicting "a military manpower meltdown in 2006." That would be the 2006 that begins six months from now. And there's nowhere near enough Iraq troops trained to be even a nominally credible replacement for US forces at this point.

But it's a reminder that there could be some complicated manuvers happening if the Bush administration really did decide it was time to declare "peace with honor" (Nixon's slogan for his withdrawal from the Vietnam War) and withdraw from an impossible situation in Iraq.