Iraq War: Is this Phase 1 of "Who Lost Iraq?"

"I think we are winning.  Okay?  I think we're definitely winning.  I think we've been winning for some time." - Gen. Richard Myers, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, on the Iraq War 04/26/05

"I just wonder if they will ever tell us the truth." - Harold Casey, Louisville, KY, October 2004.

The recent White House adoption of the Nixon-on-OxyContin strategy of trying to generate support for the Iraq War by trying to brand the Democrats and war critics as unpatriotic and supporters of The Terrorists is a reflection of the plummeting poll numbers on Bush's presidency and on the Iraq War in particular.

I don't think that the Bush teams intends to leave Iraq any time soon.  And given the military situation, it's hard to see how they can come up with what would seem to them a feasible withdrawal strategy, even if they wanted to.

I plan to devote the next few posts to looking at some aspects of the current antiwar movement.  And also to looking at some of the lessons that have been taken from the Vietnam War that affect how many people are looking at the current situation.

When you see numbers like those in the latest Rasmussen poll, you know something is going unusual is going on:

Forty-nine percent (49%) of Americans say that President Bush is more responsible for starting the War with Iraq than Saddam Hussein. A Rasmussen Reports survey found that 44% take the opposite view and believe Hussein shoulders most of the responsibility.

In late 2002, months before the fighting began, most Americans thought that Hussein was the one provoking the War. Just one-in-four thought the President was doing the provoking at that time. (49% Say Bush Responsible for Provoking Iraq War Rasmussen Reports; accessed 06/25/05)

This is part of what an antiwar movement looks like, ladies and gentlemen.  I would even say that we're seeing a Jacksonian moment right now, where the public has turned heavily against the war, despite a hesitant opposition party (the Dems) and a cowed "press corps" that is reduced to sullenly whining sad excuses as to why they didn't consider the "Downing Street Memo" news.

Now, a moment is a moment.  And as the Bush administrations spends between now and January 2009 trying to hang on in Iraq, I fully expect the public opinion polls to fluctuate.  But the current level of unpopularity of the war is pretty amazing.

Bush's speech Tuesday has been preceded by days of administration figures rolling out the supporting lines.  Duncan Black summarizes them this way: Thermonuclear 06/26/05.

The new strategy is criticism of iraq=criticism of afghanistan=support for Taliban=support for al qaeda = cheering on crashing twin towers.

After watching Rummy - always an experience - and Gen. Abizaid on the Sunday talk shows today, added to the Karl Rove sleaze of last week, I would say the current Nixon-on-OxyContin strategy includes the following.  Democrats are traitors and love The Terrorists.  Everything is going fine in Iraq, except that the Liberal Press! Liberal Press! Liberal Press! isn't reporting the good news.  Things are going to be tough, it's going to be a hard job, but the American people need to be patient.

We're winning, we're definitely winning, we've been winning for some time.  The Iraq security forces are going to be ready in a couple of years.  They are either taking the lead in operations or we're trying to get them to take the lead in operations.  Don't pay too much attention when we lump local police in with the army in the count of trained Iraqi security personnel.  We'll be able to start drawing down US troop levels, well, sometime or other.

There is no personnel crisis.  We didn't make any mistakes in the planning for the war or the occupation.  The enemy is most Zarqawi and foreign terrorists who behead people.  The Terrorists are trying to weaken the American public'sWill.  If you criticize Bush's war policies, you're aiding The Terrorists.  Did we mention that The Terrorists cut off people's heads?  If you support American troops, you support Bush's policies and never raise a question about even the biggest whoppers the administration puts forth as claims on the war.

There are also a few Baathist hardliners around.  But they are killing Iraqis.  And the Iraqis have a government they support now.  And everything is going fine.  And remember, The Terrorists attacked us on 9/11.  You know, The Terrorists that cut off people's heads in Iraq.  And, look, everything is fine in Afghanistan.  They have a model democracy, everything is going great, you don't hear anything in the papers about Afghanistan any more, now do you?

Syria and Iran are also helping The Terrorists.  We want them to seal the borders with Iraq.  But don't ask us or the Iraqis to seal the borders because, heck, what do you think?  We can't even seal the borders with Mexico.  How can you ask Our Side to seal the borders with Iraq?

Freedom is on the march.  We're winning, we've been winning all along and we're going to win.  We have the finest army in the history of the world and the finest generals and anyone who criticizes anything about the war is insulting the privates in the infantry.  Everything will be fine, as long as we can stand up to those cowardly Democrats and war critics who want to undermine our Will so they can help The Terrorists who attacked us on 9/11 and now they're attacking us in Iraq and they're cutting off people's heads and they're trying to break our Will and we're beating them, we're winning and we're going to win.

I think that's about the gist of what OxyContin radio and related propaganda outlets will be spewing for the immediate future.  See the 06/26/05 appearances of Rummy on Meet the Press and of Gen. John Abizaid on Face the Nation for a couple of firsthand lying-in-our-faces versions.

At the same time it's a support-the-war strategy, though, we're also seeing a concentrated effort now to set the stage for the stab-in-the-back theory of "Who Lost Iraq?"  It's not the Bush administration, according tothe Rovian approach, nor the fault of our brilliant generals, oh no, not that.  It's the fault of the Democrats and the Liberal Press! Liberal Press! Liberal Press!

It's worthwhile to start taking apart the stab-in-the-back theory now while its in the early stage of preparation.