The other article that deals with the question in even more detail is Bush's Hail Mary by James Galbraith, Salon.com 02/09/04. Galbraith looks at Bush's first three years in office and examines polling data from multiple sources. His conclusion:
What is the message of these numbers? One stands out: In his entire first term, only three episodes so far have gained approval for Bush. All were related to terrorism and to war. They were 9/11, the war on Iraq, and the capture of Saddam. Taken together, the five months when Bush gained popularity on these events account for 89 percent of all the variation in the change of Bush's job approval, measured by the average of these polls.
This is one of the best analyses of the polling data on Bush's popularity that I've seen. And it's strong evidence that in this election cycle at least, issues of war and peace are not only very important, but are likely to be the central issues. He also finds, crucially, that the last two boosts in Bush's rating (Iraq invasion and Saddam capture) lasted only about two months.
Galbraith does some careful speculation about what kinds of events the Bush team may be tempted to encourage in order to reap the maximum benefit for a foreign-policy boost just prior to the election. He rightly dismisses the notion that they would deliberately precipitate an attack against the US.
Another war, given the suggestions coming from people like Pentagon adviser Richard Perle and other hardliners, is not so hard to imagine. But the demands that the Iraq War is putting on military personnel makes that option impractical. And the other fallout from the war makes it problematic, as well. For instance, "the weapons-of-mass-destruction trick will not work twice."
That leaves the capture of Osama bin Laden. Galbraith ends by asking, "What price would Bush have to pay -- and to whom -- in order to bring him in, just in the nick of time?" Given that Bin Laden's most likely hiding place is in Pakistan, the biggest perpetrator of nuclear proliferation right now, that's a question very much worth considering.
2 comments:
it's a scenario i've been imagining for a while now. having spent my youth in Dallas, i used to scoff at conspiracy-theorists, but i fear now i have become one.
Given how very political this Administration has been about everything, I wouldn't be surprised to see a push to capture Osama just before the election. I've seen news reports about a major drive in Afghanistan/Pakistan is planned for the spring. The insistence on elections in both Afghanistan and Iraq to occur in June also seem to be heavily influenced by American election timing. - Bruce
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