Or at least it seems to be doing so for a moment in time, at any rate. Josh Marshall has some ideas why: Political gambits have Bush singing February blues The Hill 02/04/04.
Some causes are obvious: The rush of approbation over the capture of Saddam Hussein has subsided. The economy, which looked to be on fire six weeks ago, now seems healthy but not remarkable. The WMD imbroglio is back in the headlines. And the sheer magnitude of the fiscal crisis facing the country is again on display.
But the president’s deeper problem stems from increasing doubts that his White House is — to employ an overused phrase — on the level, that every new proposal isn’t simply one more gambit for short-term political gain, regardless of the consequences.
What has helped turn the tide is a string of crass and clumsy political gambits ranging from the president’s immigration proposal to the now-you-see-it, now-you-don’t plan for a trip to Mars and the new brouhaha over budgetary shenanigans with the prescription drug plan.
Marshall doesn't exactly put it in these terms, but what he's saying is that the President's credibility has been damaged. Bush has a "credibility gap," as they used to say of Lyndon Johnson in the 1960s. This is another way foreign policy affects voting, even though the pollsters often miss it and the reporters and pundits miss even more of it. Because the non-existent WMDs are a big part of Bush's credibility problem.
The phenomenon described in this article may also give a clue as to what's happening: Bioterror is back, but panic is not Christian Science Monitor 02/04/04. The immediate reaction (by press and politicians) seemed to be to take this more in stride compared to the 2001 anthrax attacks.
It seems to me that in mid-2003, there was a significant break in the war fever that Bush had kept alive since the 9/11 attacks. And with reduced war fever, people may be taking a more critical look at Administration claims, as well as looking more pragmatically at a bungled terrorist attack.
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