Mr. Gallup sheds more light on how Iraq is affecting voter attitudes. It's a pet theme of mine how poorly opinion polls - and the reporting that filters them to the public - often do on foreign policy issues.
Here's what Gallup is finding in his Jan. 30-Feb. 1 poll:
* Bush's rating on handling foreign affairs, at 46% approval and 51% disapproval, is the worst such rating of his administration. His other 46% approval rating of foreign affairs occurred in February 2001, shortly after he took office, but his disapproval rating on this measure was only 21% at that time, with 33% expressing no opinion.
*Bush's rating on handling the situation in Iraq, at 46% approval and 53% disapproval, has returned essentially to where it was last November, before it was temporarily boosted by news of the capture of Saddam Hussein the following month.
These are much better gauges of opinion than a vague, ambiguous quesion about "using military force" in Iraq.
In what is apparently a different poll (CNN/Gallup/USA Today), respondents were asked, "If a situation arose that required the president to make a decision about sending U.S. troops to war, who would you trust more to make that decision: John Kerry, or George W. Bush?" Kerry wins that matchup, 50% to 45%. This will displease the Big Pundits, who think that Republicans are always the flag-waving champions of defense.
For even more nerdy poll goodness, check out Ruy Texeira's Donkey Rising blog.
No comments:
Post a Comment