Arnold Schwarzenegger is finally starting to get coverage like a real politician instead of a movie star in a novelty role. This is a good example of the new conventional wisdom on Schwarzenegger: Action-hero governor in retreat lately bChristian Science Monitor 04/27/05.
Clearly, Schwarzenegger's troubles are part of a steep learning curve, as California's free-wheeling action-hero-turned-governor learns the lesson that has served the Bush White House so well: clear organization and lock-step discipline. Yet Schwarzenegger's inability to outmaneuver an extremely unpopular Legislature also serves as an object lesson for 21st-century American politics: The coveted role of political outsider is not one of improvisation only, but also of close study.
Schwarzenegger overreached in his bid to recast California, most analysts agree, relying more on image and momentum to carry his agenda than time-tested political calculation. Now, he must find a way to work with a Legislature he has so often derided - all while maintaining his maverick persona - or risk tumbling into the realm of political novelty.
As Robert Greenwald put it - it's not clear whether he meant the wording to be ironic, these days it's hard to tell: "When the front page of the New York Times announces the fall of Arnold, then we know it is real." The Fall of Arnold Huffington Post blog 05/14/05. Of course, Judith Miller's bogus stories about Iraqi "weapons of mass destruction" also appeared on the front page of the New York Times. More than once. "Real" is not the best word to describe their claims.
The story to which he refers is Schwarzenegger's Star Dipping As Californians Feel Its Singe by Dean Murphy 05/02/05.
Two opinion polls released this week showed that the governor's approval rating had dropped below 50 percent for the first time since he took office in November 2003. The surveys reflected months of protests against Mr. Schwarzenegger by nurses, teachers, police officers and other public employees.
"The mainstream has turned on him," said Rose Ann DeMoro, executive director of the California Nurses Association, whose members have hounded Mr. Schwarzenegger because of his opposition to a state law that requires more nurses in hospitals.
Is Arnold Losing It? by Mark Barabak Washington Monthly May 2005, gives a good sketch of Schwarzenegger's current woes:
The glamour and novelty he brought to the drowsy state capital served him well throughout his first year in office. But in the second reel, much of the glitter has started flaking from California's movie-star governor, making him appear a good deal more like one of the standard-issue politicians he regularly vilifies.
... Schwarzenegger showed during the [2003] recall that conventional politicians in a hurry-up campaign are no match for someone of his outsized personality. But governing has proven far different. He has been forced to pare back much of his second-year reform agenda. His poll numbers are sagging, and newly emboldened Democrats are challenging the governor at every turn. Now, the question is whether Schwarzenegger can make the transition from a cartoon-like character, all swagger and bluster, into a political leader capable of using his fame and considerable charm to achieve something lasting and meaningful.
Of course, the "glamour and novelty" to which Barabak refers in the first paragraph was largely the creation of a fawning and superficial press corps, which delights in using the kind of movie-start imagery which opens this article. A movie star governor a "novelty"? In California, home of Ronald Reagan? He's got to be kidding.
But he also seems to have trouble getting by the Schwarzenegger posturing and the press corps "scripts." Like this:
That may be just as well. His support for gay rights, stem-cell research, legal abortion, gun control, vigorous environmental protection, and prisons that focus less on punishment and more on rehabilitation are hardly in the mainstream of GOP thinking. He suggests that religion “should have no effect on politics,”' giving a back-of-the-hand to the Christian conservatives who have become a pillar of the national party. In many ways, Schwarzenegger's style and philosophy recall those of California's last celebrity governor, Jerry Brown, who famously practiced what he called “canoe politics: Paddle a little on the left, paddle a little on the right, and keep on going right down the middle.” Or, as Schwarzenegger himself put it: “One has to find some kind of happy medium in this whole thing. So that's the way I do my governing.”
Schwarzenegger a new Jerry Brown? In what alternative universe?
Can't we just stop all this nonsense about Schwarzenegger's famous "moderation"? When Schwarzenegger actually does something moderate that requires him to take on the rabid fundies and reactionary plutocrats who dominate the California Republican Party, then I'll start to take his "moderation" seriously.
Watching the so-called Republican "moderates" in Washington wring their hands over whether they dare vote against a thug like John Bolton is making me seriously wonder if there is any such thing as a "moderate" Republican left anywhere. Is a "moderate" Republican the kind that smiles sweetly while they phase out Social Security and launch preventive wars against countries that have not attacked the United States?
Schwarzenegger's rating drops sharply: Since January, his popularity has plunged 20 points by Gary Delsohn Sacramento Bee 04/28/05 (annoying registration required).
Just as Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger prepares to sell a reduced "reform" agenda to voters, a newly released statewide poll shows the Republican governor's popularity has plummeted.
The poll from the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California found that only 40 percent of adults now approve of the way Schwarzenegger is handling his job as governor, a whopping 20 percentage point drop since January.
Among "likely voters," his approval rating was a higher 45 percent, but that fell from 63 percent at the start of the year.
His popularity plunges like a rock, and finally the press corps notices that maybe people are looking at something besides his pretty face. Gee, a movie star governor, what a "novelty"!
California, fortunately for us all here, is a relatively strongly unionized state. And the nurses and teachers and public employees unions have been waging publicity campaigns against him over his "moderate" slash-and-burn Republican approach to government services. Yeah, it's all very entertaining to have a "novelty" movie-star governor. But when those potholes in the freeway start multiplying, and when those sacred property values start going down because the public schools in your neighborhodd is deteriortating, and when you hear about cutbacks in the firefighters that have to deal with those raging wildfires you hear about every year - well, "novelty" starts looking like a luxury we can do without.
Columnist Dan Walters is a Schwarzenegger fan. But even he's having a hard time putting a nice spin on the governor's current troubles: Speculation, hope and nervousness surround governor's status Sacramento Bee 04/26/05
There's no question that Schwarzenegger has entered the darkest period of his 1 1/2-year governorship, and that his popularity has declined. There's also no question that some of his problems are self-inflicted because he and his advisers did not put together his overhaul package adroitly enough to forestall legal and political problems. And there's no question that Democrats and the unions quickly recognized the danger that his measures posed to their control of the Capitol and launched an effective campaign to attack Schwarzenegger's standing as a reformer - an assault that has gone largely unanswered.
But Walters tries to look on the bright side for his man Arnie:
It's uncertain, however, just how much damage Schwarzenegger has suffered among voters, and whether it's temporary or the beginning of a fatal slide.
When your admirers start saying, well it could be just temporary and not "the beginning of a fatal slide," that's kind of grim.
But at least we don't have Gray Davis and his pay-for-play style of government around any more: A lobbyist by any other name? Strategist with ties to Schwarzenegger takes advantage of state law by Dion Nissenbaum San Jose Mercury News 05/20/05.
... Bob White, a genial Republican maestro who helped elect Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger... has an advantage lobbyists don't. While registered influence peddlers must reveal whom they work for, White calls himself a strategist who doesn't directly push for changes in state policy. That legal distinction allows White to conceal who his corporate clients are, even though he and members of his consulting firm, California Strategies, go to bat for them by taking advantage of antiquated state lobbying laws to influence the Schwarzenegger administration.
White's business dealings are raising questions about whether his close relationship with the Schwarzenegger administration is tilting major state decisions in favor of his clients. And they could pose a political conundrum for Schwarzenegger, who ran on a pledge to bring a new level of integrity to the state Capitol.
Since Schwarzenegger took office in November 2003, White has met at least 19 times with top Schwarzenegger officials, taking part in discussions on everything from timber policy and major land deals to Medi-Cal reform and state computer contracts, according to interviews and appointment calendars obtained by the Mercury News.
Nissenbaum's article provides further details.
Oh, yeah, Schwarzenegger thinks vigilantes on the border are cool. Governor causes immigration stir: Governor causes immigration stir: He lauds the Minuteman patrols along the Mexican borders by Gary Delsohn and Aurelio Rojas Sacramento Bee 04/29/05
Did I mention Schwarzenegger is a Republican "moderate"? He must mean that he only wants "moderate" vigilantes out there.
In his strongest language yet on illegal immigration, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger lavishly praised private citizens patrolling the Mexican border - a group President Bush has called "vigilantes" - and demanded that controversial Los Angeles billboards promoting a Spanish-language television station be removed.
The comments about the border patrols, which came on a popular Southern California talk radio show, touched off a storm of denunciation from Latino and Democratic political leaders.
"I think they've done a terrific job," Schwarzenegger said of the so-called Minuteman volunteers who have been patrolling the Mexico border in Arizona. Others plan similar efforts in California this summer.
"They've cut down the crossing of illegal immigrants a huge percentage," he said. "So it just shows that it works when you go and make an effort and when you work hard. I mean, it is a doable thing, and it's just that our federal government is not doing their job. It's a shame that the private citizen has to go in there and start patrolling our borders."
Yep, our moderate "novelty" governor is more rightwing than George W. Bush on the vigilante issue. Well, Bush is a "compassionate conservative," though, huh?
And our immigrant-success-story govenor objects to billboards in Spanish:
The billboards, which show two cable newscasters and the Los Angeles skyline behind them, say "Los Angeles, CA" with the word "CA" crossed out and replaced with "Mexico." Below that are the Spanish words "Tu ciudad. Tu equipo," which translates into English as: "Your city. Your team." Schwarzenegger said the billboards encourage illegal immigration and should be removed immediately.
What the [Cheney]? ¿Porqué se dice algo así? Esta ciudad se llama La Ciudad de Los Ángeles. Mucha gente allá hablan español. ¿Se quiere ser solamente anuncios en inglés? ¿También los para Latinos? No dice mucho en favor del gobernador.
Al neuvo alcalde latino de Los Ángeles no le gusto los vigilantes: Villaraigosa contra los ‘minutemen’ La Opinión 05/20/05
"Necesitamos que el Departamento de Seguridad Interna [DHS], encargado de patrullar las fronteras, se ocupe del problema de la seguridad”, dijo [Antonio] Villaraigosa. “Tenemos un viejo dicho de tiempos del lejano oeste… deje su revólver fuera de los límites de la ciudad”, agregó el alcalde electo. “No tiene sentidoque la gente tome la ley en sus propias manos”. 
David Neiwert, who is one of the best writers about far-right groups that I've ever read, has been commenting about the "Minuteman" movement and how recent events represent a "mainstreaming" of yet another piece of rightwing extremism. And, of course, Schwarzenegger the "moderate" is helping out in that process: The new vigilantes by David Neiwert, Orcinus blog 05/09/05.
[T]he Minutemen have positioned George W. Bush - whose proposal, nonetheless, is radical in that it for the first time separates immigration from citizenship - as the seeming moderate in all this. Democrats, typically, have remained silent on the sidelines. Sensible and realistic discussion of immigration issues, as a result, is nowhere to be found.
Into this vacuum are leaping opportunistic politicians like Arnold Schwarzenegger, whose predilection for countenancing the ugly side of the American psyche surfaced during the election, largely disappeared, but has now resurfaced[.]
Here's Dan Walters again, sounding even less hopeful about his man Arnie: Slogans don't work anymore - Schwarzenegger must make his case Sacramento Bee 05/03/05
Exit polls of November's voters had indicated that more than two-thirds approved of Schwarzenegger's performance in his first year as governor, and the Democrat-controlled Legislature's popularity was less than half as much. Clearly, he saw the forthcoming, off-year campaign as a continuation of his 2003 drive for the governorship - a spate of well-orchestrated public events, radio talk show gigs and TV ads to overwhelm the opposition.
Four months later, Schwarzenegger is still in that mode, assuming - at least for public consumption - that he's still leading an angry electorate against entrenched interests. "I need the people's help to make big changes in California," he told patrons at a Fresno restaurant last week during a media event aimed at gaining initiative signatures, adding, "If the legislators don't do their work, the people should."
But the tectonic plates of California politics have shifted again, and Schwarzenegger's claim to be leading a popular revolt is tarnished. Delays and miscues in drafting the ballot measures, nasty squabbles with teachers and nurses, and weeks of highly negative, union-sponsored television ads depicting Schwarzenegger as a right-winger who doesn't keep his word have taken their toll. Two new polls released last week indicate that his popularity among voters - those who think he's doing a good job - has slipped to well below 50 percent, with erosion among independent voters the governor's worst news.
His fellow columnist Peter Schrag has generally taken a more level-headed and less admiring view of Schwarzenegger: Governor's reform agenda: a rush to confusion Sacramento Bee 04/27/05.
That leaves only two reasons for a costly special election: to put pressure on the Legislature for a deal on the budget, and possibly on reapportionment, and to feed the expensive political machine that the governor has attached to himself.
It's the dream of every campaign consultant, said Bruce Cain, director of UC Berkeley's Institute of Governmental Studies, to turn seasonal jobs into full-time work. Why limit campaigns to every other year when you can have them around the clock? If there's a special election this fall, it will be the sixth statewide election in 3 1/2 years.
As the product of the recall two years ago, with his visionary sense of himself as a man of destiny and his belief that he can sell anything - that for $30 million he can get any ballot measure passed - the governor may have developed an exaggerated sense of the possibilities.
That inflated confidence is a perfect match for an organization laced with high-priced veterans of the campaigns of Gov. Pete Wilson, who may well have an overinflated sense of their own political prowess.
Schwarzenegger's notion of not only perpetual campaigning and fundraising but also constant special elections is not a prescription for more democracy; it's a prescription for demagoguery.
But Ruy Teixeira thinks Schwarzenegger is more adaptable than Bush: Unlike W, Arnold Learns the Limits of Swagger Donkey Rising blog 05/01/05.
Schwarzenegger does seem to be more able to learn from his mistakes than President Bush. And he has said that he has to produce to have a political future of any kind, and that will require putting a lid on the bluster and adopting a more conciliatory attitude, just like grown-ups -- a lesson which sems to be lost on the leader of his party.
So the Democrats certainly can't count Schwarzenegger out. But it's good to see that people are processing his performance in terms of what he is as a politician, and not as a celebrity event. Maybe the press can learn something from that.
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