John Dean: The Dark Lord is in deep doo-doo

John Dean has just published his latest look at CheneyGate: A Cheney-Libby Conspiracy, Or Worse? Reading Between the Lines of the Libby Indictment Findlaw.com 11/04/05.  (Also available at CommonDreams.org.)

Dean explains that  Libby's indictment goes well beyond the bare-bones language related narrowly to the charges being brought, which would be the typical style for a federal indictment.  The longer description in the indictment invokes the provisions of the Espionage Act.  Patrick Fitzgerald explained during last week's press conference that Scooter's alleged obstruction prevented the prosecution from making a determination about possible violations of the Espionage Act.

Dean says that Scooter's cock-and-bull story that he heard about Valerie Plame's status as a secret operative from Cheney, then forgot it, and then heard it later from reporters and didn't remember he had already heard it from Cheney, seems to be designed to shield both Scooter and Cheney from being charged with violating the Espionage Act:

This story is, of course, a lie, but it was a clever one on Libby's part.

It protects Cheney because it suggests that Cheney's disclosure to Libby was causally separate from Libby's later, potentially Espionage-Act-violating disclosure to the press. Thus, it also denies any possible conspiracy between Cheney and Libby.

And it protects Libby himself - by suggesting that since he believed he was getting information from reporters, not indirectly from the CIA, he may not have had have the state of mind necessary to violate the Espionage Act.

Thus, from the outset of the investigation, Libby has been Dick Cheney's firewall. And it appears that Fitzgerald is actively trying to penetrate that firewall.

Dean thinks that Scooter would have to flip and testify against Cheney for Fitzgerald to be able to make a solid case for espionage and/or conspiracy against the Vice President.  And he thinks the most likely outcome is that Scooter will fall on his sword - maybe swallowing the forged documents would be a better metaphor? - for the Dark Lord:

Will Libby flip? Unlikely. Neither Cheney nor Libby (I believe) will be so foolish as to crack a deal. And Libby probably (and no doubt correctly) assumes that Cheney - a former boss with whom he has a close relationship -- will (at the right time and place) help Libby out, either with a pardon or financially, if necessary. Libby's goal, meanwhile, will be to stall going to trial as long as possible, so as not to hurt Republicans' showing in the 2006 elections.

So if Libby can take the heat for a time, he and his former boss (and friend) may get through this. But should Republicans lose control of the Senate (where they are blocking all oversight of this administration), I predict Cheney will resign "for health reasons."

On the other hand, think about the cost-benefit calculations that must be going through Scooter's head.  And churned over by his attorneys.  Scooter could take the fall for the Dark Lord and do several years of prison time, relying on Cheney's promise to help him out at some point in the future.  That means relying on the word of Dick Cheney.  A man with the honor of a shark.  And a man with a bad heart, in both the physical and metaphorical senses.

How does that prospect sound to you, Scooter?

Dean doesn't think that Cheney is the only one vulnerable to further indictments.

Having read the indictment against Libby, I am inclined to believe more will be issued. In fact, I will be stunned if no one else is indicted.

It seems very likely that Official A, aka Karl Rove, is one of those high on the list for possible further indictments. And if Rove has somebody he can give up to get a deal, i.e., Bush or Cheney, that's got to be weighing on Scooter's mind as well.

And you have wonder what role David Addington, former counsel to the Vice President and now Scooter's successor as the Dark Lord's chief of staff, may have played in arranging that "Dick told me but I forgot" defense.

(Cross-posted at The Blue Voice)