"I think we are winning. Okay? I think we're definitely winning. I think we've been winning for some time." - Gen. Richard Myers, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, on the Iraq War 04/26/05.
"I just wonder if they will ever tell us the truth." - Harold Casey, Louisville, KY, October 2004.
Is the Bush administration really going to try a drawdown of American troops below the 135-140,000 level they've maintained throughout the occupation?
From the leaks the last few days, it sure sounds like some of them wanted us to believe that over the Thanksgiving holidays, at least. And this is an interesting piece of news: The New Way Out by Michael Hirsh, Scott Johnson and Kevin Peraino Newsweek 12/05/05 issue; accessed 11/28/05.
Under the Pentagon's plans, U.S. numbers are to be reduced back to about 138,000 by the new year (troop totals are now edging up to 160,000 leading into the December election). Then, under what the Pentagon calls a "moderately optimistic" scenario - but the one it considers most likely—20,000 to 30,000 more troops would come out by mid-2006, with a further goal of phasing down the U.S. presence to 80,000 to 100,000 by "late next year." As additional evidence of its intentions, the Defense Department quietly announced on Nov. 7 the major units scheduled to deploy to Iraq in the next big rotation, starting in late summer next year. Those units add up to 92,000 U.S. troops in 2007.
To secure the country with so few troops, Khalilzad and Casey have had to swallow their pride. They are making compromises with Sunni supporters of the insurgency that would have been unthinkable a year ago. President Bush is also doing what he has been loath to do: asking neighboring countries for help, even the rabid anti-American Islamists in Tehran. Khalilzad revealed to NEWSWEEKthat he has received explicit permission from Bush to begin a diplomatic dialogue with Iran, which has meddled politically in Iraq. "I've been authorized by the president to engage the Iranians as I engaged them in Afghanistan directly," says Khalilzad. "There will be meetings, and that's also a departure and an adjustment. "
The new U.S. strategy could still fail in many ways. One, the Iraqi units taking over from U.S. troops are almost wholly dependent upon American logistical and other support functions. So while the training and equipping of the Iraqi frontline units should be completed by January 2007, building a support capability behind them is going to take a lot longer, says Lt. Gen. David Petraeus, the former commander in charge of training. That means U.S. convoys won't stop rolling along the highways of Iraq - and they could be even more vulnerable to roadside IEDs because they'll be protected by Iraqis, not American combat troops. (my emphasis)
So, Bush the Magnificent, Scourge of the Heathen and Liberator of Peoples, our crusading Dear Leader who was out to vaquish the "axis of evil", is now hoping that the Shi'a Islamic government in Iran will help him out with a withdrawal from Iraq.
I wonder if he'll put on his flight suit and make another Top Gun landing on a battleship after that deal is announced.
Steve Gilliard (Leaving The News Blog 11/26/05) thinks a drawdown of troop levels will happen out of sheer necessity:
The fact is that the Army has until mid-summer 2006 to remain a viable force in Iraq. Both Guard and RA enlistments are coming to an end, and people cannot do more than three tours in Iraq. A fourth tour would pretty much guarantee a broken marriage and or severe injury. The human body can take only so much stress.
Sure, the units may remain there, but the edge will slowly and permanently slide over to the resistance.
Bush may want to remain in Iraq forever, but rumblings of deployal refusals are in the air. You cannot send Guard units on repeat tours, some shouldn't have been sent on one.
Once you start reducing troops, the pressure to bring them home increases expoentially, and their combat effectiveness declines. If you leave 50,000 troops in Iraq, they won't be able to move. They will be under increasing attacks daily and soon penned in their bases.
Let's see what specifics the administration has in mind. And if it includes a clear renunciation of permanent bases in Iraq.
"Wars are easy to get into, but hard as hell to get out of." - George McGovern and Jim McGovern 06/06/05
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