Simon's withdrawal from the California recall/governor's race highlights one of the key points of the analysis by Harold Meyerson at American Prospect Online. He points out that one of the features of the recall that California is currently enduring is to deprive voters of party primaries:
What the recall has done is eliminated the primary. In a normal election, Golden State Republicans would themselves be able to select who their standard-bearer would be. Democrats would comparison shop among a number of promising candidates, rather than be presented with the fait accompli of Bustamante as their backup standard-bearer.
That analysis especially holds true on the Democratic side. Essentially, the Democratic Party leaders picked Bustamonte as their fallback candidate through what we used to call the "smoke-filled room." Although for anti-smoking California, maybe we need an updated metaphor.
Simon's withdrawal under pressure from the Republican Party (Karl Rove?) also supports Meyerson's point. However, I think my earlier post on the electoral hurdle Schwartzenegger has to clear is still valid.
Unless Tom McClintock and Peter Ueberroth can be persuaded to withdraw, "Ahnie" still has a competitive situation on the Republican side. Although Simon's absence clearly helps him, particularly in the very short run. Still, Ahnie still faces having to get something like 70% of the non-Davis-Bustamonte vote to become governor.
- Posted by Bruce Miller 08/25/03
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