Public support for Bush and the Iraq War

There has been quite a bit of discussion about recent conservative defections from support of the Iraq War.  The rear-end-covering is in full swing.  Individuals coming up with alibis about why they aren't to blame, damage control efforts by Republicans.  But Bush and Rove are still riding the tiger and aren't showing any obvious signs of switching to a strategy of rapid withdrawal.

Glenn Greenwald's thoughts on this seemingly sudden CYA rush among Republican publicists are worthwhile: Latest Iraqi war casualty -- conservative belief in "personal responsibility" Unclaimed Territory blog 02/28/06.

So are James Wolcott's comments at his blog:  Commandante Kristol Unholsters His Cap Pistol 02/26/06.

Jim Lobe gives a good summary of recent polls on the Iraq War and Bush's popularity, or, more accurately, lack thereof: Poll of US Troops in Iraq Underlines Growing Pressure to Withdraw Inter Press Service 02/28/06.

Lobe brings together some interesting poll results here:

According to a New York Times-CBS poll released Tuesday, Bush's public-approval ratings have fallen to an all-time low of 34 percent - down eight points from January, and lower even than the 35 percent he held in a CBS poll last October in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.

Iraq, along with the controversy over the administration's approval of a Dubai company to take over the management of terminals in six major U.S. ports, appears to be a major part of the latest decline. Only 30 percent of respondents said they approved of his management of the situation there, compared to 65 percent who said they disapproved.

That result echoes a recent Gallup poll that found the public more pessimistic than ever about progress in the Iraq war: only 31 percent -- almost all of them self-identified Republicans - said they thought Washington and its allies were winning there.

Thirty percent (give or take) buy the Bush administration public position on the Iraq War.  A somewhat higher percentage approve of the job he's doing in general.  In other words, support for the war is down to hardcore Republicans, with the most solid block of support (at least based on the polls I've seen) among white Southerners.  And given that 40-45% of the public can be counted as generally loyal Republican voters, that means that as many of a third of normally Republican voters don't believe the administration about the war. It's looks like it's down to the real hard core Republicans on support for the Iraq War.

And even some of that support may be due more to Party loyalty and devotion to Bush's image.  Gene Lyons has some caustic comments this week on the decline of "the cult of personality surrounding Bush" (Bush's fabled intuition may be just that Arkansas Democrat-Gazette 03/01/06):

Because of the way things are going, we may be about to find the authoritarian rock-bottom; that is, how many Americans will profess unthinking loyalty to any president calling himself "Christian" and "conservative," and retaining the support of right-wing radio hosts.

Roughly one-third is my guess. According the latest CBS News poll, Bush's approval rate stands at 34 percent, down eight points from January.