Iraq War: Unintended consequences

"I think we are winning.  Okay?  I think we're definitely winning.  I think we've been winning for some time." - Gen. Richard Myers, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, on the Iraq War 04/26/05

"I just wonder if they will ever tell us the truth." - Harold Casey, Louisville, KY, October 2004.

Michael Matza wrote last fall about how "Iraq is seen as training ground for wider violence", Philadelphia Inquirer 11/15/05 (the link has expired).  He reported:

Increasingly, jihadists opposed to America and its Middle East allies have staged large-scale attacks in neighboring Arab countries, and jihadist supporters have poured money into armed organizations inside Iraq to keep tensions high, particularly between Muslim Sunnis and Shiites.

The attacks at three luxury hotels here last week in which three suicide bombers killed 57 people - mostly Jordanians -and wounded hundreds, are just the latest examples on a growing list of international targets.

Amid allegations that foreign fighters flow through Syria into Iraq, deadly border clashes between U.S. and Syrian soldiers, and al-Qaeda attacks in Saudi Arabia, Egypt and now Jordan, it appears the first steps toward democracy in Iraq have done little to bring stability to the region. Nor have they stopped Iraq's chaos from spilling dangerously across the Middle East.  (my emphasis)

This article is datelined for Amman, Jordan, and has particular reference to the then-recent terrorist attack on hotels there.  Matza also writes:

"The consequences of the absence of a clear strategy to contain the aftermath of the war in Iraq are reflected on neighboring countries and probably on the world as a whole," said Nasser Lozi, Jordan's former information minister.

One of those consequences, experts say, is how Iraq has become a breeding ground for exportable violence.

"It has actually replaced the role of Afghanistan in the late 1980s in providing a training ground... in suicide bombings and war-of-attrition tactics," said Jordanian political analyst Rana Sabbagh, a former editor in chief of the Jordan Times.

Jordan "is a legitimate target in the eyes [of al-Qaeda]," said Sabbagh, because of Amman's close relations with the U.S. administration, its logistical support for U.S. operations in Iraq, and its signing of the 1994 bilateral peace treaty with Israel.

"Everyone was... warning the Americans that invading Iraq would be like opening Pandora's box," said George Hawatmeh, Jordan's former information chief in Washington, who recently returned to Amman. "Iraq would be broken up into states, causing instability in the region and accordingly, regional violence would spread."  (my emphasis)

That sounds oddly similar to what US Ambassador to Iraq Zalmay Khalilzad said earlier this month:  "We have opened the Pandora's box and the question is, what is the way forward?"

"Wars are easy to get into, but hard as hell to get out of." - George McGovern and Jim McGovern 06/06/05