The latest Bin Laden message

It's worth taking a critical look at major statements by Al Qaeda leaders, especially Bin Laden's.  The American press doesn't do enough of it, as I talked about in this post of 01/15/05.  But what can we expect from a Potemkin press corps?

I included in that earlier post an excerpt from this editorial in the Tampa Tribune, which quotes the CIA analyst who wrote Imperial Hubris (2004) under the pseudonym Anonymous: Exactly What Does Bin Laden Want? 07/22/04.

In an interview with NBC, the unidentified veteran agent speculated on bin Laden's motives: "He's not a man who rants against our freedoms, our liberties, our voting, our - the fact that our women go to school. He's not  the Ayatollah Khomeini.

"He really doesn't care about all those things. To think that he's trying to rob us of our liberties and freedom is, I think, a gross mistake. What he has done, his genius, is identify particular American foreign policies that are offensive to Muslims whether they support these martial actions or not - our support for Israel, our presence on the Arabian Peninsula, our activities in Afghanistan and Iraq, our support for governments that Muslims believe oppress Muslims, be it India, China, Russia, Uzbekistan. Bin Laden has focused the Muslim world on specific, tangible, visual American policies."

This latest Bin Laden offer of a "truce" seems to be similar to the kind of offers included in other messages, like those of late 2004.  (See my posts of 10/29/04, 10/30/04, 11/02/04, and  11/30/04.) It's directed not at any expectation of negotiating a peace agreement with the US.  It's saying to Muslims, see, we've offered the Americans a chance to repent, and they haven't done so. And the idea is that, because they elect their own government, ordinary Americans are legitimate targets  for retaliation for policies of the Bush government.

It certainly sounds like Bin Laden is announcing an impending attack on American soil.  Let's hope the Bush administration is doing a better job in planning for dealing with this one than they did on predicting the "weapons of mass destruction" in Iraq, or in responding to the Katrina emergency.

Following are excerpts from other analyses of the latest Bin Laden message:

CIA: Voice is Bin Laden Aljazeera 01/20/06

Richard Clarke, a former White House anti-terrorism chief, said: "The initial significance of this is that he is still alive.

"The only new element in his statement is that they are planning an attack soon on the United States.

"Would he say that and risk being proved wrong, if he cannot pull it off in a month or so?" Clarke asked.

Of the truce offer, Clarke said: "I think it is designed to make him look more reasonable in Arab and Muslim eyes.

"He's a very sophisticated reader of world opinion and American opinion, and he obviously knows he can't affect American thinking. He is too reviled."

Larry Johnson: Why we can't nab Bin Laden No Quarter blog 01/20/06.

"If ifs and buts were candy and nuts it would be Christmas everyday". This old saying seems appropriate in light of Bin Laden's latest message to the world. If Bin Laden's desires equaled actual capabilities then we would face daily attacks by Al Qaeda operatives. Fortunately, Al Qaeda's actual ability to hit us has been significantly degraded. Despite carrying out spectacular attacks in Spain (March 2004) and England (July 2005), Al Qaeda has not been able to sustain offensive operations in either country, not to mention the United States. We can hinder and even destroy their ability to attack us, but we must make it a priority. Unfortunately, despite tough talk from the White House, we have made finding Bin Laden a low priority. Left unmolested Bin Laden can hurt us and hurt us bad....

I do not want to hear anymore the nonsensical excuse, "who could have known"? from the Administration . Let there be no doubt, we have been warned.

Pat Lang: A Truce? - Unlikely Sic Semper Tyrannis blog 01/19/06.

[A]fter listening to the larger message of the tape, I am inclined to think that the "truce talk" is intended for the Muslim audience as assurance that the Jihadis do care about the welfare if the Islamic masses, especially in Afghanistan and Iraq, and to deliver the message that it is the Kuffar (infidels) who are responsible for the continuation of the misery of war.

This tape is basically a pep talk for the Faithful, wherever they may be.  For us, in the West, it means nothing.  Did we think they had "gone away?"

From:: New Al-Qaeda strategy behind Bin Laden message by Syed Saleem Shahzad, Adnkronos International 01/20/06.

Well-placed intelligence sources say that for the core of al-Qaeda 2005 was dedicated to a major overhaul and focused on consolidating its network for future operations. During the second half of theyear al-Qaeda achieved many of its objectives, in particular the establishment of various secure operational bases, something that had been wiped out in the US bombings of the hostile Tora Bora region in Afghanistan.

The al-Qaeda leadership has secured a series of safe havens in Khost-North Waziristan, South Waziristan, Kunar-Chitral, Kunar-Bajur; all remote mountainous tribal areas on the Afghan-Pakistan border where 'enemy' intelligence services or military have little hope of penetrating. ...

Of these, South and North Waziristan are considered the most significant as the government of Pakistan has lost any semblance of control in a traditionally lawless zone. Pakistani security operatives are unable to move far beyond South Waziristan’s heaquarters of Wana and North Waziristan’s headquarter of Miramshah.

Pro-Taliban militants have almost complete control and Waziristan is an information 'black hole'. Local journalists are not allowed to file stories without prior approval by local militants and no journalists from Pakistan's mainstream media are allowed to enter the area.

Sources in various Jihadi organisations confirmed that both North and South Waziristan have become the hub of all Jihadi activities in South Asia. ...

Sources warn that sorting out fresh bases and fresh recruits are the prime successes of al-Qaeda in preparation for a new offensive, and say Osama bin Laden’s re-appearance confirms this to his followers. (my emphasis)

Anti-terrorism experts like Michael Scheuer have given close attention to Bin Laden's statements.  There's now a collection available in a popular edition.  (If you aren't too worried about getting on some list for buying it.)  See: Read bin Laden’s own words in new book: Bruce Lawrence brings together 24 of bin Laden’s statements and videos MSNBC/AP 11/30/05.