Iraq War: "It is all ugly and likely to get much uglier"

I used to think Robert Dreyfuss was overly pessimistic about American policy in the Middle East. I wouldn't say that any more: On The Brink In Iraq TomPaine.com 02/24/06.  Dreyfuss describes the current situation in Iraq this way:

Ethnic cleansing is proceeding apace. The bombing of the Golden Dome in Samarra ought not to be seen as a conspiratorial effort to provoke civil war, but merely as a symptom of that incipient war. As a Sunni city north of Baghdad, it is likely that ethnic cleansers planned the attack as a means of terrifying Shiites in that part of Iraq to flee southward to the Shiite enclaves. Scores of Iraqi cities, towns, and neighborhoods are undergoing a similar pattern of terrorism and death squads aimed at ethnic cleansing.

What is especially scary to Shiites is that the destruction of the Golden Dome follows an historic pattern first laid down by the Wahhabi conquerors of the Arabian peninsula in the nineteenth and early twentieth century, when the Wahhabi Arab army made demolition of Shiite mosque domes its signature and launched a crusade against alleged idolatry by Shiites, who were disparaged by the Wahhabis as heretics. The Kurds, too, standing back from the Sunni-Shiite battles, are engaging in their own, anti-Arab ethnic cleansing in and around the oil-rich city of Kirkuk, which President Jalal Talabani of Iraq, a Kurd, has called “the Jerusalem of Kurdistan.”

It is all ugly and likely to get much uglier. So far, hundreds of Iraqis on all sides have died since Tuesday, scores and perhaps hundreds of mosques attacked, execution-style slayings proliferated, and ordinary Iraqis driven into hiding or into exile. A weekend curfew has Iraq on the knife’s edge.

Dreyfuss also makes an important point in something of an understated way.  Up until just recently, the US had been in the position of supporting a Shi'a government in Iraq against a Sunni insurgency.  Now we're increasingly facing the hostility of both Shi'a and Sunnis.  As Dreyfuss puts it:

The bankruptcy of the Bush-Cheney Iraq policy is revealed in the fact that the United States has succeeded in pitting itself now against two major “resistance” groups in Iraq. The first is the Sunni-led, mostly Baathist and military resistance, which has battled U.S. forces in Baghdad and the so-called Sunni triangle to the north and west. The second, which is growing in the ferocity of its anti-Americanism, is the Shiite religious forces led by the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), Moqtada Al Sadr’s Mahdi Army, and their allies, who have begun routinely to denounce the United States for its opposition to their plans to create a Shiite-dominated, Iranian-allied Islamic Republic of Iraq. Abdel Aziz Al Hakim, SCIRI’s chieftain and former commander of its Badr Brigade paramilitary force, has all but declared war on the United States, blaming Ambassador Khalilzad for giving a “green light” to the bombers by insisting that Shiite militias be disarmed.

The US position in Iraq once we invaded and ousted Saddam's Baathist regime has always been one of choosing between bad alternatives and worse ones.  As time goes on, the alternatives get worse.  And there are fewer of them.  If the Shi'a generally turn against the US, well, that's pretty much the end of the game, isn't it?