Some of the most perceptive critical observers of the Iraq War have been showing a real sense of frustration since Bush's televised Iraq speech. It's part of the paradox of reformers: once the general public starts getting the message, it's hard not to feel disgusted that it took them so long.
Billmon fits into that category. He's definitely impatient at the slow-changing public attitude toward the war. But it's not nearly as bad as it looks to him at the moment.
First of all, polls are great at predicting general elections. But they're pretty lousy at measuring public attitudes on foreign policy. The questions are often poorly constructed. A demographer friend of mine tells me that often, they fail to include a "don't know" option, for instance, a pretty serious omission. (I can't say whether that applies to the particular polls Billmon cites.) Foreign policy polls are better at showing trends than measuring positions on specific issues.
Billmon is putting too much weight on abstract attitudes, e.g., that 58% of Americans say the Iraq War was worth fighting. What's remarkable is that only 58% are saying that. And what does that really mean? It includes basically 100% of the partisan Republicans who were thoughtless cheerleaders for the war. And it includes some people who aren't ready to say that the war was totally unworthy of the sacrifice of American lives.
Surely Billmon is already familiar with the problem war critics have always faced, of honoring the patriotism and sacrifice of the soldiers while criticizing the war in which they fought. For many people, "The war was fought for good reasons, but they way it was done wasn't right" is a good way to resolve that dilemma.
He also cites a poll finding that 55% think US casualties are too high, even when the war aims were taken into account. That's pretty strong stuff. One of the basic ideas of Christian "just war" theory as enunciated some 15 centuries ago by Saint Augustine is that the cost of the war (in lives above all) should be commensurate with the good likely to be achieved. If 55% are saying they think that isn't the case, that would be a strong measure of sympathy for the war skeptics' position.
Billmon's reaction to the current polls seems to be a case of not being able to take "yes" for an answer.
5 comments:
Bruce, whatever the arguments about whether Iraq should or should not have been invaded, that invasion took place, and we have to live wth the consequences. If the US were to pull out now the results would be horrendous, both for the stability of the Middle East and because the terrorists would benefit greatly. So we should all hope and pray that Iraqi reconstructionproceeds well and swiftly, or we will all suffer great negative conseuqences. David
Bruce, By the way fifty-eight per cent was enough to sink the campaign to have Sweden join the euro, perhaps for a generation. (And probably my chances of winning a bet about Britain joining the euro!) So fifty-eight per cent support from the US public for the continuing reconstruction in Iraq, with all its difficulties, looks good to me. Although it's true I have an optimistic nature. David
David, it's true that we have to live with the consequences. But the public's unenthusiastic reaction right now is a reflection of the way the Administration has sold the Iraq War and the "war on terrorism." Despite the occasional alibi disclaimer about a long struggle, etc., Bush & Co led the public to believe that the Iraq War would be quick and easy. And that terrorism could be fought with shopping sprees and tax cuts.
David, it's true that you're likely to lose that bet about Blair getting Britain to adopt the euro! :) But the Swedish vote was on a very specific policy. The poll showing 58% support for the Iraq War is on a much vaguer, general concept. The low poll number on the supplemental appropriation is probably a better measure of short-term reaction. At this point, whether public support will hold up will depend on what can of visible progress can be made in Iraq during the next few months.
Oops! Make that what KIND of visible progress.
Post a Comment