tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5147000415127454560.post9162098106881660618..comments2023-12-09T12:13:00.212-08:00Comments on AOL Journals 1st Old Hickory's Weblog: Iraq War: Insurgents and parliamentariansBruce Millerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05022449143502020665noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5147000415127454560.post-14477231602223559292005-04-06T10:15:00.000-07:002005-04-06T10:15:00.000-07:00I'm not sure what to make of Iraq. The violen...I'm not sure what to make of Iraq. The violence continues, and we seem to be incapable of even measuring progress in the Iraqification of the war.<br><br>On the other hand, since the election it seems we are in a new situation in which things could begin to improve -- I am not sure that we aren't in transition right now to a period in which real stability and autonomy might be secured for the Iraqi people. Perhaps rather quickly.<br><br>It doesn't change my baseline view that the war was wrong from the start, but I have not expected it to end well either -- now I am not sure what to expect.<br><br>Of course, if you read the right wing loonies, they are all crowing about how Bush was right -- they credit him for things that haven't happened yet, and for things that are clearly happening for reasons he had nothing to do with (unless he killed Arafat and Hariri). That kind of empty-headed boasting makes no sense at all.<br><br>But there may come a point where things start to look up for Arabs across the Middle East, and real progress on human rights, democracy and political freedom -- and then it is possible that we will all be celebrating Bush's success. <br><br>I don't think it very likely, but it is possible.<br><br>Neil<br>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5147000415127454560.post-40197070389905166972005-04-06T10:22:00.000-07:002005-04-06T10:22:00.000-07:00At this point, I think it's important to keep two ...At this point, I think it's important to keep two things in mind about the Iraq War.<br><br>One is that we getting relatively little independent reporting on the war. The security situation is so bad most reporters don't get far from their hotel, and very few get outside of Baghdad.<br><br>The other is that the overall situation can be getting better *and* worse at the same time. The ideal case at this point would be that the Sunni insurgents would call a truce and cooperate in forming a government. The government would rapidly staff up its army, paramilitary forces and police to an adequate level and then the US could leave.<br><br>On the other hand, while progress is being made toward forming a government, the Sunni rebels are still fighting, as is Zarqawi's Al Qaeda subsidiary (or whatever its called). The Kurds seem to be pretty intransigent over oil revenues. And the Shia seem insistent on a clear establishing of Islamic law. Any of those could "go south" on the whole operation at any moment.<br><br>And, as I believe you have pointed out before, Neil, there have been a lot of idications that Bush administration sees Iraq as a *permanent* base for US troops, which makes any kind of "the best peace we can get" scenario almost unthinkable. - BruceAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5147000415127454560.post-37991029204118365422005-04-06T11:22:00.000-07:002005-04-06T11:22:00.000-07:00I agree with all of that, Bruce (especially the fi...I agree with all of that, Bruce (especially the first point -- we get nothing but questionable and obviously limited information). However, for a long time there was nothing but bad news, and now there is some good news in the region (or at a minimum, some developments that hold the potential for good news). <br><br>I know that sounds like grasping for straws, but what I am really trying to say is that my eyes and mind are open to that possibility. In view of opportunities for progress in the region, I think we must tailor our strategy and actions in Iraq to fit the overal strategy for promoting regional stability and progress towards democratization.<br><br>I would not have fought this war -- I still think it was immoral to invade Iraq, and much of what we have done there was stupid and even criminal.<br><br>But now -- after arguing for our withdrawal from that country for almost 2 years -- I find myself re-examining the options and thinking in terms of making sure whatever we do from here on does not snuff out the small but important possibility of change for the better across the whole region.<br><br>If our war was evil, perhaps we can atone for our sin by helping Arabs to achieve some of the progress they have so long hoped for.<br><br>I am cautiously hopeful, and prepared for disillusionment -- but hopeful nonetheless.<br><br>Neil<br>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com